The most highly anticipated Fed meeting of the year took place on September 17-18, and with it came a 50-basis point rate cut—arguably the outcome the market hoped for. 11 of 12 Fed officials voted in favor of the cut, which lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range between 4.75% and 5%. Projections released after the meeting signaled that the Fed could go further, cutting by 25 basis points at each of the next two meetings (scheduled for November and December).¹
The equity market’s response has been positive in the short term, but the financial media has not been so sure. On one hand, some pundits argue the larger rate cut is bullish because it underscores the Fed’s commitment to making a decisively dovish pivot, which should lower borrowing costs while boosting economic activity and market returns. The bears, on the other hand, argue that the Fed sees an economy in trouble, thus requiring a larger rate cut to stave off recession.
Neither camp is right, in my view.
Let’s start with the bulls. The issue I have here is one I’ve written about frequently in the past, which is the idea that there is a strong correlation between the direction of rates and the direction of stocks. In theory, rate cuts are supposed to be bullish, while rate hikes are bearish. But history doesn’t support causation or correlation between rates and stocks.
For example, if we look at every bull market from 1950 onward, it’s easy to find several instances when interest rates were rising, the economy was expanding, and the stock market was going up—all at the same time. It happened in every bull market between 1950 and 1980, and notably from 2004 to 2006 and again from 2015 to 2019. Conversely, interest rates were falling in the aftermath of the tech bubble and during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, and stocks were falling too.
For the bears, I think there’s a case of reflexive thinking when it comes to the Fed and monetary policy. Since the Fed has historically been too late on monetary policy adjustments, bears see it as likely—or even near certain—that Fed officials have also missed the mark in this cycle.
In other words, the bulls place too much emphasis on the role that monetary policy plays on stock market returns, and the bears aren’t allowing for the possibility that the Fed can execute a soft landing.
While the bears’ critique of historical monetary policy decisions is a fair one, I view the current economic setup differently. Looking at key U.S. macroeconomic fundamentals today, this is what we see:
- U.S. annualized GDP growth of 2.5% in 2023, with 1.4% growth in Q1 2024 and 3.0% (second estimate) in Q2 2024
- Inflation at 2.5% (July PCE price index)
- Unemployment rate at 4.2%
- 10-year U.S. Treasury bond at 3.75% (as of September 20).
All things considered, these data points are quite close to where we want them to be long term. The one asterisk is the benchmark fed funds rate, which at current levels of 4.75% to 5% indicates that monetary policy is far too restrictive, in my view.
Enter current Fed policy. The 50-basis point cut seems to me to be an acknowledgment that the inflation problem is now behind us and that the Fed can now focus on moving short-term rates to a “neutral rate,” which would be significantly lower than the current 4.75% to 5%.
In previous decades, when inflation was below 2%, investment and growth were strong but rarely booming, a neutral rate of around 2.5% was the target. Looking out from today, however, with sizable government deficits, shrinking labor forces, and a shift to ‘onshoring’ manufacturing, we may see more pressures on inflation and interest rates in the years ahead. The neutral rate in this scenario may be closer to 3.5%, which implies a few more rate cuts in this cycle. Should the jobs market remain stable, and inflation remain anchored to acceptable levels—as rates continue to fall—the ‘elusive’ soft landing may be precisely what we get.
Bottom Line for Investors
I made the argument previously that rate cuts are not automatically bullish or bearish. Stocks have done well when rates are rising, and they’ve done well when rates are falling. There’s no distinct correlation.
What we know from history, however, is that the stock market does tend to perform well when rates are falling and the economy is growing. Falling rates lower borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, which can bolster investment and spending. Small-cap stocks can especially get a boost since they tend to have more floating-rate debt than their large counterparts. This relationship is only relevant in an environment where the economy is growing, which should make growth—not rates—the focal point for investors.
Sources:
- Wall Street Journal. September 18, 2024. https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/the-fed-has-significantly-improved-the-odds-of-a-soft-landing-3cbf486d?mod=djemMoneyBeat_us
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