Barring a sharp correction in the next few trading sessions, U.S. stocks are likely heading into the fourth quarter near all-time highs. I’ve made the case previously that steady, although fairly modest, economic growth paired with resilient earnings has supported prices to date. With the Federal Reserve poised to ease monetary policy as the economy expands, there is not a great case for being outright bearish.1
But that does not mean risks are low. Below, I outline four that I think investors should be keenly watching in the next quarter and beyond.
Risk #1: A Second Wave of Inflation
Among institutional investors, recession fears dominated earlier this year, particularly following the “Liberation Day” announcement. Today, it’s inflation that is again the top concern. August CPI data underscored this concern, with inflation coming in hotter-than-expected. The risk here is that the Fed will again have to reverse course, just as the market is baking in expectations for several rate cuts.
Prices for some goods may rise, especially where tariffs hit. But without the monetary backdrop to sustain a broad-based surge, the specter of runaway inflation looks overstated, in my view. Broad money supply growth in the U.S. remains tame (see M2 money supply chart below), though the trend line will be worth watching closely in the months ahead.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 2
Risk #2: Concern Over Federal Reserve Independence and U.S. Dollar Weakness
Fed policy is always political to some degree, given that appointments come from the White House and confirmations from the Senate. Removing Fed governors because of a disagreement over policy would be a major concern, but the Supreme Court already reaffirmed this year that such an act would be illegal. Public criticism of rate policy may seem threatening, but it’s also nothing new, and there is little evidence it has swayed decision-making from the Federal Open Markets Committee.
As for the dollar, “de-dollarization” chatter resurfaces regularly, with Russia, China, or the BRICS bloc often floated as challengers. Yet data show the dollar still comprises more than half of global currency reserves, and it is involved in nearly 90% of all foreign exchange transactions. No other currency matches the U.S. dollar’s liquidity, stability, and global reach. Over time, the dollar’s share may fluctuate, but fears of sudden debasement or collapse look misplaced.
Risk #3: Over-Concentration
Tech remains the market’s favorite sector, with AI-related companies driving much of 2025’s gains. In my view, this enthusiasm reflects strong fundamentals. Q3 2025 Tech earnings are expected to rise over 12% year-over-year on similarly strong revenue growth.
But with enthusiasm comes concentration. When too much capital chases the same trade, markets become vulnerable to abrupt reversals if sentiment shifts. For now, earnings support remains solid, but this is a reminder of the importance of diversification. Overcrowding isn’t a reason to avoid strong companies, but it does raise the odds of volatility if momentum cools.
Risk #4: Rising Long-Term Bond Yields
The summer saw 30-year yields in the U.S., U.K., France, and Germany climb to multi-year highs, sparking a wave of debt-crisis headlines. In Britain, rising gilt yields were pinned on budget concerns. In France, an offhand remark about an IMF bailout got blown out of proportion. In the U.S., some tied higher yields to worries about refunding tariffs should courts strike them down.
But a closer look reveals that rising long yields is a global issue. Italy, Spain, Canada, and Australia all saw long-term yields rise in tandem. In my view, and as I’ve written before, this trend is less about country-specific fiscal woes and more about sentiment flowing through interconnected global bond markets. Historically, modest increases in long rates alongside central bank rate cuts steepen yield curves, which is a setup that can support lending and growth.
Bottom Line for Investors
It’s a mixed bag right now for investors. Many are growing more bullish as 2025 closes, but worries also remain. Inflation, Fed independence, dollar stability, crowded trades, and rising yields all top the list. But it’s also true that these risks are widely known and widely discussed, which in my view reduces their power to derail the bull market.
For long-term investors, the persistence of these worries ultimately creates a constructive backdrop. Earnings continue to hold up, the Fed has begun easing, and the economy is chugging along despite headwinds. Volatility may flare if one of these worries dominates headlines again, or if the risk comes to fruition in a worse way than expected. That’s why I’m urging investors to stay focused on them.
1 TrustNet. September 16, 2025. https://advisor.zacksim.com/e/376582/ite-record-overvaluation-fears/5tmj31/1326236343/h/GiShj21LxhtbTDGNKyNnyarlFm8_dLP4EUXm8RxlG2U
2 Fred Economic Data. September 23, 2025. https://advisor.zacksim.com/e/376582/series-WM2NS-/5tmj34/1326236343/h/GiShj21LxhtbTDGNKyNnyarlFm8_dLP4EUXm8RxlG2U
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