BayTrust Financial, Author at BayTrust Financial

Oct 02

Mitch Zacks – Weekly Market Commentary: What Fed Rate Cuts Mean for the Markets and Economy

By BayTrust Financial Weekly Market Commentary

The most highly anticipated Fed meeting of the year took place on September 17-18, and with it came a 50-basis point rate cut—arguably the outcome the market hoped for. 11 of 12 Fed officials voted in favor of the cut, which lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range between 4.75% and 5%. Projections released after the meeting signaled that the Fed could go further, cutting by 25 basis points at each of the next two meetings (scheduled for November and December).¹

The equity market’s response has been positive in the short term, but the financial media has not been so sure. On one hand, some pundits argue the larger rate cut is bullish because it underscores the Fed’s commitment to making a decisively dovish pivot, which should lower borrowing costs while boosting economic activity and market returns. The bears, on the other hand, argue that the Fed sees an economy in trouble, thus requiring a larger rate cut to stave off recession.

Neither camp is right, in my view.

Let’s start with the bulls. The issue I have here is one I’ve written about frequently in the past, which is the idea that there is a strong correlation between the direction of rates and the direction of stocks. In theory, rate cuts are supposed to be bullish, while rate hikes are bearish. But history doesn’t support causation or correlation between rates and stocks.

For example, if we look at every bull market from 1950 onward, it’s easy to find several instances when interest rates were rising, the economy was expanding, and the stock market was going up—all at the same time. It happened in every bull market between 1950 and 1980, and notably from 2004 to 2006 and again from 2015 to 2019. Conversely, interest rates were falling in the aftermath of the tech bubble and during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, and stocks were falling too.

For the bears, I think there’s a case of reflexive thinking when it comes to the Fed and monetary policy. Since the Fed has historically been too late on monetary policy adjustments, bears see it as likely—or even near certain—that Fed officials have also missed the mark in this cycle.

In other words, the bulls place too much emphasis on the role that monetary policy plays on stock market returns, and the bears aren’t allowing for the possibility that the Fed can execute a soft landing.

While the bears’ critique of historical monetary policy decisions is a fair one, I view the current economic setup differently. Looking at key U.S. macroeconomic fundamentals today, this is what we see:

U.S. annualized GDP growth of 2.5% in 2023, with 1.4% growth in Q1 2024 and 3.0% (second estimate) in Q2 2024
Inflation at 2.5% (July PCE price index)
Unemployment rate at 4.2%
10-year U.S. Treasury bond at 3.75% (as of September 20).

All things considered, these data points are quite close to where we want them to be long term. The one asterisk is the benchmark fed funds rate, which at current levels of 4.75% to 5% indicates that monetary policy is far too restrictive, in my view.

Enter current Fed policy. The 50-basis point cut seems to me to be an acknowledgment that the inflation problem is now behind us and that the Fed can now focus on moving short-term rates to a “neutral rate,” which would be significantly lower than the current 4.75% to 5%.

In previous decades, when inflation was below 2%, investment and growth were strong but rarely booming, a neutral rate of around 2.5% was the target. Looking out from today, however, with sizable government deficits, shrinking labor forces, and a shift to ‘onshoring’ manufacturing, we may see more pressures on inflation and interest rates in the years ahead. The neutral rate in this scenario may be closer to 3.5%, which implies a few more rate cuts in this cycle. Should the jobs market remain stable, and inflation remain anchored to acceptable levels—as rates continue to fall—the ‘elusive’ soft landing may be precisely what we get.

Bottom Line for Investors

I made the argument previously that rate cuts are not automatically bullish or bearish. Stocks have done well when rates are rising, and they’ve done well when rates are falling. There’s no distinct correlation.

What we know from history, however, is that the stock market does tend to perform well when rates are falling and the economy is growing. Falling rates lower borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, which can bolster investment and spending. Small-cap stocks can especially get a boost since they tend to have more floating-rate debt than their large counterparts. This relationship is only relevant in an environment where the economy is growing, which should make growth—not rates—the focal point for investors.

Sources:

Wall Street Journal. September 18, 2024. https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/the-fed-has-significantly-improved-the-odds-of-a-soft-landing-3cbf486d?mod=djemMoneyBeat_us

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The Russell 1000 Growth Index is a well-known, unmanaged index of the prices of 1000 large-company growth common stocks selected by Russell. The Russell 1000 Growth Index assumes reinvestment of dividends but does not reflect advisory fees. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. The volatility of the benchmark may be materially different from the individual performance obtained by a specific investor.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average measures the daily stock market movements of 30 U.S. publicly-traded companies listed on the NASDAQ or the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The 30 publicly-owned companies are considered leaders in the United States economy. An investor cannot directly invest in an index. The volatility of the benchmark may be materially different from the individual performance obtained by a specific investor.

The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index is a flagship measure of global investment grade debt from twenty-four local currency markets. This multi-currency benchmark includes treasury, government-related, corporate and securitized fixed-rate bonds from both developed and emerging markets issuers. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. The volatility of the benchmark may be materially different from the individual performance obtained by a specific investor.

The ICE Exchange-Listed Fixed & Adjustable Rate Preferred Securities Index is a modified market capitalization weighted index composed of preferred stock and securities that are functionally equivalent to preferred stock including, but not limited to, depositary preferred securities, perpetual subordinated debt and certain securities issued by banks and other financial institutions that are eligible for capital treatment with respect to such instruments akin to that received for issuance of straight preferred stock. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. The volatility of the benchmark may be materially different from the individual performance obtained by a specific investor.

The MSCI ACWI ex U.S. Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 22 of 23 Developed Markets (DM) countries (excluding the United States) and 24 Emerging Markets (EM) countries. The index covers approximately 85% of the global equity opportunity set outside the U.S. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. The volatility of the benchmark may be materially different from the individual performance obtained by a specific investor.

The Russell 2000 Index is a well-known, unmanaged index of the prices of 2000 small-cap company common stocks, selected by Russell. The Russell 2000 Index assumes reinvestment of dividends but does not reflect advisory fees. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. The volatility of the benchmark may be materially different from the individual performance obtained by a specific investor.

The S&P Mid Cap 400 provides investors with a benchmark for mid-sized companies. The index, which is distinct from the large-cap S&P 500, is designed to measure the performance of 400 mid-sized companies, reflecting the distinctive risk and return characteristics of this market segment.

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Aug 28

Love0

Mitch Zacks – Weekly Market Commentary: Will September Rate Cuts Hold Off a Recession?

By BayTrust Financial Weekly Market Commentary

July’s consumer price index (CPI) report received a warm reception from equity investors and Fed watchers. Inflation had fallen to its lowest level since 2021 (2.9% year-over-year), essentially paving the way for the first rate cut in years. Like clockwork, the chatter among investors was not if the Fed would cut rates at the September meeting, but by how much.

The ensuing 25-basis point vs. 50-basis point debate harkens back to 2023 and early 2024 when futures markets were forecasting six or more rate cuts for 2024, which was at the time double the Fed’s projection. Just about everyone was wrong. As it turned out, the stock market and the U.S. economy did not need lower interest rates to perform well. While the Fed funds rate has remained over 5% for the past year, GDP growth and market returns have been solidly positive.¹

Nevertheless, with the Fed poised to cut interest rates at the September meeting, investors are once again being drawn into the narrative that lower rates are essential to stave off a recession and to keep the bull market going.

I still don’t buy that argument.

If we look at every bull market from 1950 onward, it’s easy to find several instances when interest rates were rising, the economy was expanding, and the stock market was going up—all at the same time. It happened in every bull market between 1950 and 1980, and notably from 2004 to 2006 and again from 2015 to 2019.

But you don’t need to be a market historian to find a time when rising interest rates aligned with rising stocks. It happened just over a year ago. In the chart below, readers can see the Fed funds rate (blue line), the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield (green line), and the S&P 500 index (red line) from March 2022 to August 16, 2024. In this period, interest rates have climbed, and so have stocks.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis²

To be more specific, from March 2022 to August 2024, this is what we’ve seen:

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate: went from 0% to 5.25% – 5.5%
10-year U.S. Treasury Bond: went from 1.75% to 3.9%
S&P 500 Index: went from 4,385 to 5,550 (up over +25%)

The idea that the U.S. economy and the stock market’s fate are in the Federal Reserve’s hands is simply not substantiated by what we know from history, or even from 2024. Interest rates have remained ‘higher-for-longer’ all year, and stocks have powered higher.

Monetary policy decisions are not meaningless, of course, but my argument here is that they are not as important as many investors think them to be.

In my view, what would hurt markets most is if inflation and inflation expectations start to drift higher and become un-anchored from their current 2.5% to 3.5% level, perhaps because of some unforeseen shock in geopolitics or the global economy. If the Fed is forced to go in the other direction—raising rates instead of cutting them because of a negative inflation surprise—I think that could be very detrimental to stocks. For now, however, inflation data continues to show the opposite, with gradually falling prices alongside signs of weakening in the jobs market—neither of which calls for higher rates.

Bottom Line for Investors

We know in the current environment that the Fed believes monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive, and with improving inflation readings and the unemployment rate rising from 3.7% at the beginning of the year to 4.3% in July, there is no expectation that interest rates will go any higher.

It’s also true that markets move on surprises, so if the Federal Reserve ended their September meeting with no rate cuts and a hawkish overall tone, I’d expect a volatile response from the stock market. But if the concern is whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points or 50, and/or whether they will offer guidance for future rate cuts in November and December, I do not believe these are the outcomes influencing stocks most. Investors can frame market outlook in terms of shifting expectations around interest rates, but doing so means ignoring

Sources:

MSN. 2024.https://advisor.zacksim.com/e/376582/nty-on-economy-fed-ar-AA1oR5UK/5rnv64/1004854014/h/ULpPPkTMOl6paVv1MMHY1qrsZfbyRpsK4lxorOHkkKE
Fred Economic Data. August 19, 2024. https://advisor.zacksim.com/e/376582/series-DFF-/5rnv67/1004854014/h/ULpPPkTMOl6paVv1MMHY1qrsZfbyRpsK4lxorOHkkKE

DISCLOSURE

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss.

Aug 16

Love0

Ways to Save for College Costs

By BayTrust Financial Financial Planning

It’s back to school season—a perfect time to think about your children’s future. Parents and grandparents should start planning for college costs as early as possible.

Most Americans would do almost anything for their children and grandchildren, and sending them to college is a top priority for many. According to studies, more than 50% of parents are willing to go into debt to fund their child’s college education, and at least 95% of parent expect to cover at least half the costs.

The trouble is, college debt is extremely high—currently $1.77 trillion in the U.S. The average student loan debt amount is now $37,338 according to recent data.

Why is college debt so high? Well, for one thing, the average in-state tuition cost at public four-year institutions is $11,260 for the 2023-24 school year—and that’s per semester. That is about three times as high as it was in 1989-90, according to the College Board.

And on top of that, interest rates have risen. For the 2024-25 school year, federal parent PLUS loans will be at their highest point in more three decades, at a whopping fixed interest rate of 9.08% plus fees.

So, what is a loving parent or relative to do? Here are some of your options.

1) 529 Plans

A 529 plan, technically known as a “qualified tuition program” under Section 529 of the Internal Revenue Code, is an education savings plan offered by all 50 states and the District of Columbia. There are generally two types—prepaid tuition which allows you to lock in today’s tuition rates for the future college attendee, and the more popular 529 savings plan.

Keep in mind that you aren’t restricted to your own state’s plan. You can invest funds in any state’s plan, and your student can attend college in any state. Each state’s 529 plan is unique, with a different combination of sales channels, investment offerings and fees. It can pay to shop around when choosing a plan because even if your state offers a tax deduction or credit for contributing to your state’s plan, that benefit might not stack up against the performance or lower cost of another state’s plan.

PROS

As of 2023, if a 529 plan is owned by a grandparent, aunt, uncle or other person, it is virtually invisible on the FAFSA’s calculations for both assets and won’t count as student income later if used for qualified expenses.

Although contributions to a 529 plan aren’t tax deductible on your federal tax return, the earnings grow tax-free when withdrawn and used for qualified education expenses.

Many states offer state income tax deductions for contributions if you choose to invest in your state’s plan. (Your child can still attend college anywhere.)

There are no income limits on 529 plan contributions, so they’re available to everyone. Plans vary, but most have high total contribution limits—usually in the $235,000 to $529,000 range.

CONS

If owned by a parent or student, a 529 plan is counted as an asset on the student’s FAFSA (free application for federal student aid), although only a percentage of the total account is calculated.

There are limited investment options available with 529 plans, and only one investment change per year is permitted. Some plans have high costs and fees.

If your child, you or any family member does not want to attend college, and if 529 plan money is withdrawn and not used for education expenses, the account’s earnings are subject to both income tax as well as a 10 percent penalty tax, and you may have to pay back any state income tax deduction amounts as well. (There are exceptions to 529 plan penalties if your student receives scholarships.)

2) Roth IRAs

If a 529 plan doesn’t work for your family for some reason, a Roth IRA (individual retirement account) may be an option to consider. You can withdraw money from Roth IRA accounts to be used for college expenses for you, your spouse, children or grandchildren as long as the account has been in place for five years. If the account owner is under age 59-1/2, the only tax liability for college expenses will be on any withdrawn earnings—if over 59-1/2, the entire withdrawal amount is tax- and penalty-free for any purpose as long as you’ve owned the account for five years.

PROS

There is a lot of flexibility with a Roth—you can invest in nearly any type of account you want to within a Roth IRA wrapper.

If your child doesn’t choose to go to college, the money can be used for any purpose, including retirement, with no mandated withdrawals or RMDs (required minimum distributions) or taxes due. Inherited Roth IRA accounts are also tax-free.

CONS

One of the difficulties with Roth IRAs is that high earners can’t open them, and the yearly limit in 2024 for contributions is only $7,000 ($8,000 per year for those 50 or older). In some cases, what’s called a “backdoor Roth” might be indicated for high earners, where they can legally convert taxable IRA funds into Roth IRA accounts and pay taxes on the money converted, but these are complex and strict IRS rules apply.

While a Roth IRA does not show up as an asset for financial aid calculations, amounts withdrawn and used for college expenses are considered income for the next school year, and therefore may reduce the amount of student financial aid that’s available.

3) Life Insurance

Permanent life insurance policies, such as whole or universal life, include both a death benefit and a savings/cash account component which you can borrow against to pay for college.

PROS

Many permanent cash value policies regularly credit the policy with interest in a guaranteed* amount specified in the policy terms (*guaranteed by the claims-paying strength of the issuing insurance company.)

Money borrowed from the cash value in a life insurance policy is not taxable in most cases. Interest credited to a life policy grows tax-deferred, but the credited interest portion is taxable if that part of the money is borrowed for any purpose, including college.

If the insured dies, the death benefit plus remaining cash value is almost always tax-free when left to individually-named beneficiaries.

Buying a flexible, permanent policy for a child at a young age when they are healthy can ensure that they are insurable even if there’s an unexpected future adverse event; for instance, if they develop a severe illness later.

CONS

While a life insurance policy does not show up in financial aid calculations as an asset, amounts borrowed to pay for college are considered as income on the next year’s FAFSA, potentially reducing the amount of student financial aid available.

Life insurance policies can be costly for those who are older or in poor health. If you are using life insurance to pay for college, consider buying the policy when the child is a healthy toddler—with them as the insured to keep the cost of insurance low.

If you borrow money from the cash portion of a permanent life insurance policy, interest is charged by the insurance company on the amount borrowed until you pay the money back—in essence, you are paying “yourself” back—and regular premium payments must be made to keep the policy in force. It is advisable to work with a qualified professional to examine the structure of any policy so that you understand its terms.

4) Annuities

Annuities are another option to consider.

PROS

Annuities can offer a tax-advantaged option for college costs in some cases because annuity policy growth is not taxed until funds are withdrawn.

You could purchase a fixed annuity with a short payout schedule to make payments to cover tuition, but you may have to contribute a significant amount to achieve the payout needed. Another way to potentially make an annuity work is to start early when your child is young and purchase a deferred annuity policy which guarantees* a high credited interest rate (*guaranteed by the claims-paying strength of the issuing insurance company).

CONS

While an annuity does not show up on the FAFSA as an asset, annuity amounts paid out are considered income the next year, which can reduce your student’s chances of receiving financial aid. So rather than taking annuity payments while attending college, optionally you could take out student loans, allowing your annuity to continue to grow, then use the annuity to pay off the loans after graduation depending on interest rates, crediting rates, and whether or not it saves you money in the long run.

How College Savings Can Impact Financial Aid Eligibility

Working with a qualified financial and tax professional is advised when planning for college costs. Legislation is always changing for parents and grandparents looking to get a jump-start in funding their child or grandchild’s education. For example, due to the FAFSA Simplification Act of 2020, in July of 2023 the EFC (expected family contribution) was replaced by the SAI (student aid index).

Where the EFC bottomed out at $0, the SAI goes as low as -$1,500, meaning students can qualify for more need-based financial aid. SAI also simplifies the FAFSA form itself, drastically reducing the number of questions. Where possible, the new law mandates data received directly from the IRS be used to calculate the SAI and federal Pell Grant eligibility.

Where the new SAI may truly be a boon to students who need more aid is through 529 plans owned by extended family members. As of July 2023, 529 accounts owned by grandparents, aunts, uncles or others are not counted as assets, nor are qualified distributions taken from them counted as income. Therefore, they no longer have significant impact on eligibility for financial aid.

FAFSA (free application for federal student aid) and the CSS (college scholarship service)

While it is true that life insurance, annuities and 529 plans owned by anyone other than parents or students are not counted as assets on the FAFSA, they may be counted on the CSS (College Scholarship Service) profile, another aid form used for aid by about 240 colleges in addition to the FAFSA. The CSS profile is extremely complex and steps are being taken to simplify it, but changes to the form have not been finalized.

More Resources

Federal Student Aid Estimator https://studentaid.gov/aid-estimator/

FAFSA https://studentaid.gov

If you have any questions or would like to discuss your family’s financial goals, please call us! Don’t put it off—give us a call! You can reach Bay Trust Financial at 813.820.0069.

This article is for general information purposes only and should not be relied upon for financial or tax advice. In every case, it is recommended that you work with financial, tax and legal professionals to determine what might be best for you and your family based on your unique situation and circumstances.

Sources:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/04/most-parents-would-go-into-debt-for-the-sake-of-a-childs-college-fund.html

https://www.investmentnews.com/industry-news/news/how-much-are-parents-willing-to-cover-for-their-kids-college-252891

https://educationdata.org/average-student-loan-debt#

https://www.lendingtree.com/student/student-loan-debt-statistics/

https://research.collegeboard.org/trends/college-pricing/highlights#

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2024/05/28/parent-plus-loan-rate-2024-25-soars/73824155007

https://www.greenbushfinancial.com/all-blogs/grandparent-529-college-savings#

https://www.schwab.com/ira/roth-ira/contribution-limits#

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/backdoor-roth-ira.asp

https://www.edvisors.com/student-loans/parent-student-loans/introduction-to-federal-student-loans-parent-plus-loans/

https://unicreds.com/blog/student-aid-index

https://studentaid.gov/help-center/answers/article/fafsa-simplification-act

https://www.savingforcollege.com/intro-to-529s/does-a-529-plan-affect-financial-aid#

https://www.plansponsor.com/secure-2-0-reforms-529-and-able-accounts/

https://www.ncan.org/news/590316/Changes-to-the-2022-23-CSS-Profile-Heres-What-You-Need-to-Know.ht

Aug 07

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Mitch Zacks – Weekly Market Commentary: Are Dispersion and Concentration in the Stock Market Too High?

By BayTrust Financial Weekly Market Commentary

Q2 2024 U.S. GDP Numbers Quiet the Naysayers

Underestimating the U.S. economy’s fundamental strength was a theme in 2023. At the outset of the year, nearly every polled economist predicted the U.S. would enter a recession as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, with a stated goal of lifting the unemployment rate to tame inflation. Instead, the economy grew 3.1% for the year and added nearly 3 million new jobs.

Fast forward to 2024, and the U.S. economy still has its doubters. It is common to see the argument that the U.S. consumer is tapped out—pandemic savings are gone, people are increasingly frustrated by nominally higher prices, and households are weighed down by rising debt loads and high interest rates.¹

Yet the economy keeps chugging along.

In the second quarter, the Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.8%, to a level of $22.9 trillion. That’s significantly more than the 2.1% rate economists had expected, and it also marks a significant acceleration from the 1.4% annual GDP growth rate posted in Q1 2024.

Real GDP Percent change from preceding quarter

From an investment perspective, the elements of GDP that matter most to stocks—private sector components and consumer spending, in my view—were solid nearly across the board.

Breaking these down, we saw businesses investing in commercial construction, equipment, and software at a stout 5.2% annualized rate, up from 4.4% in the last reporting period. Capital expenditures (capex) were driven by an 11.6% increase in spending on equipment and a nearly 5% increase in software/intellectual property investment, which in my view demonstrates that corporations are going on offense—not what you’d expect to see in a tenuous economic environment.

Capex Jumped in Q2 2024, as Businesses Invested in More Equipment and Software

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis³

U.S. consumers also had a good quarter, continuing a trend that has lasted years now.

Sometime in 2023, we started hearing about pandemic savings running dry, and pockets of weakness appearing in the labor market. More recently, I’ve seen warnings of rising delinquencies and consumers feeling squeezed by higher prices and the effects of higher borrowing costs. While much of this is true, it simply hasn’t translated into a consequential pullback in spending.

To be fair, solid consumer spending data in Q2 owes partially to a weak first quarter, when spending on goods fell -2.3% annualized. The base effect made a rebound in spending easily attainable, and consumers delivered. But if consumers are feeling pinched by the effects of high inflation and borrowing costs, there’s some positive news as it relates to the outlook from here: inflation continues to moderate, and I expect borrowing costs to move lower—not higher—in the next year.

To add, U.S. consumers continue to benefit from a steady labor market where wages (blue line in the chart) are rising at a faster-annualized pace than inflation (red line, CPI). These rising real wages give U.S. consumers more spending power in the face of inflation, not less.

Wages are Rising at a Faster Annual Pace than Inflation

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis⁴

Putting it all together, the odds of a “soft economic landing” keep going up, as economic growth continues apace while inflation continues to moderate. From an investment standpoint, that’s good news for stocks, in my view. But it could be especially positive for small caps.

With Fed funds currently between 5.25% and 5.5% and the latest inflation reading (according to the Fed’s preferred measure, the PCE price index) at 2.5%, monetary policy is quite restrictive. An outlook that interest rates will be lower in the future than they are today is a constructive setup for small-cap stocks.

Valuations should help this setup. Because large-cap growth stocks have had an impressive run especially relative to small-cap stocks, there’s a valuation gap that makes small-cap stocks look inexpensive on a relative basis. As of the end of Q2 2024, for instance, small-cap value stocks were trading at 96.7% of their 20-year average P/E, while large-cap growth stocks were trading at 149.2% of 20-year P/E averages. If rate cuts do come and the U.S. economy continues to surprise to the upside, small-caps could easily lead to the next phase of the bull market.

Bottom Line for Investors

I do not want to paint the picture that the U.S. economy is in perfect shape with few risks to growth. But I also think it is not accurate to frame the economy in doubtful terms or to say it is performing poorly, as many do. The second quarter GDP data—along with the past years’ worth of better-than-expected economic data—proves that the U.S. economy is still expanding solidly, despite higher interest rates. Stocks’ strong performance underscores as much.

Sources:
1) Wall Street Journal. July 25, 2024. https://advisor.zacksim.com/e/376582/onomy-trendingnow-article-pos3/5rgbvn/995489872/h/rzfemz5s5glno4BcDjR2i1bijQUtGYXxlVMBO0NUtUI
2) BEA. July 25, 2024. https://advisor.zacksim.com/e/376582/ata-gdp-gross-domestic-product/5rgbvr/995489872/h/rzfemz5s5glno4BcDjR2i1bijQUtGYXxlVMBO0NUtUI
3) Fred Economic Data.
4) Fred Economic Data. July 5, 2024. https://advisor.zacksim.com/e/376582/series-CES0500000003-/5rgbvv/995489872/h/rzfemz5s5glno4BcDjR2i1bijQUtGYXxlVMBO0NUtUI

DISCLOSURE
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss.

Jul 22

Love0

Personal Finance: The Importance of Starting Early

By BayTrust Financial Financial Planning, Retirement, Retirement Planning, Social Security, Tax Planning

Whether you’re just starting out in your career, you are a Gen-X-er sandwiched between your kids’ college expenses and aging parents’ needs, or you are a Baby Boomer eyeing retirement, starting early can help when it comes to your finances. Here are some reasons why.

When You’re Young—In Your 20s

We’ve all heard the famous quote by Albert Einstein, the one where he said, “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t, pays it.” And it’s true. In many cases, if you start out early—perhaps in your teens or 20s—saving just a small amount each month, you can amass more money through time than if you start saving at a later age, even if you save a larger amount each month. Of course, it depends on what you invest in. Be sure to check with a trusted financial advisor about how this works.

Investopedia uses this example:

Let’s say you start investing in the market at $100 a month, and you average a positive return of 1% a month or 12% a year, compounded monthly over 40 years. Your friend, who is the same age, doesn’t begin investing until 30 years later, and invests $1,000 a month for 10 years, also averaging 1% a month or 12% a year, compounded monthly.

Who will have more money saved up in the end? Your friend will have saved up around $230,000. Your retirement account will be a little over $1.17 million. Even though your friend was investing over 10 times as much as you toward the end, the power of compound interest makes your portfolio significantly bigger.

When You’re Older—In Your 40s, 50s or Early 60s

As you head into retirement, starting early to map and plan out your retirement—well before you retire—can help you for many reasons, because there are a lot of moving pieces to consider. Plus, everyone’s situation is completely different and what might work for someone else might not be right for you at all. For instance, one person’s desired retirement lifestyle could be drastically different than another person’s, requiring different budget amounts. (Consider whether you want to stay home and become a painter, or travel the world with your entire extended family. That’s what we mean by drastically different budgets.)

Once you have your required retirement budget amount settled, timing then becomes very important. A financial advisor with a special focus on retirement can really make the difference by laying out a retirement roadmap just for you. Here are some of the things you should know and think about:

1) Medicare Filing – Age 65

You are required to file for Medicare health insurance by age 65 or pay a penalty for life. To avoid this penalty, be sure to sign up for Medicare within the period three months before and three months after the month you turn age 65. If you are still working or otherwise qualify for a special enrollment period, you can sign up for Part A which is free for most people, and then sign up for Part B after you retire. Visit https://www.medicare.gov/basics/costs/medicare-costs/avoid-penalties to learn more about penalties and how you can avoid them.
You are required to have Medicare coverage if you are not working or covered by a spouse with a qualified health insurance plan, and Medicare (other than Part A) is not free. In fact, it costs more if your income is higher. Your Medicare premium is often deducted right out of your Social Security check, and premiums generally go up every year.

When you sign up for original Medicare Part B or a replacement Medicare Advantage plan, the least amount you will pay for 2024 is $174.70 per month per person. For those with higher incomes, the Medicare premiums you pay are based on your income from two years prior—those with higher incomes pay more. For couples filing jointly, the highest amount you might pay for Part B coverage if your MAGI (modified adjusted gross income) is greater than or equal to $750,000 is $594.00 per month per person for 2024.

So, depending on your income for the tax year two years prior to filing for Medicare, your premium could be from $174.70 to $594.00 in 2024, or somewhere in between.
If you plan ahead, your advisor might help you plan to take a smaller income in the years prior to turning age 65 in order to keep your Medicare premium smaller. For instance, some people might want to retire at age 62 or 63 and live on taxable income withdrawn from their traditional 401(k) or IRA account/s before they even file for Medicare or Social Security. Each person’s situation is completely unique, but advance retirement planning may help you come out ahead in the long run.

2) Social Security Filing – Age 62, 66-67, 70 or sometime in between

Another moving piece in the retirement puzzle is Social Security. The youngest age you can file for Social Security is age 62, but a mistake some people can make is thinking that their benefit will automatically go up later when they reach their full retirement age—between age 66 to 67 depending on their month and year of birth. This is not the case. If you file early, that’s your permanently reduced benefit amount, other than small annual COLAs (cost of living adjustments) you might or might not receive based on that year’s inflation numbers.
Filing early at age 62 can reduce your benefit by as much as 30% according to Fidelity. Conversely, waiting from your full retirement age up to age 70 can garner you an extra 8% per year. (At age 70, there are no more benefit increases.)

Planning ahead for when and how you will file for Social Security can make a big difference in the total amount of benefits you receive over your lifetime. And married couples, widows or widowers, and divorced single people who were married for at least 10 years in the past have even more options and ways to file that should be considered to optimize their retirement income.

3) Taxes In Retirement

Thinking that your taxes will automatically be lower during retirement may not prove true in your case, and it’s important to find out early if there is a way to mitigate taxes through early planning. Don’t forget that all that money you have saved up in your traditional 401(k) will be subject to income taxes—and even your Social Security benefit can be taxed up to 85% based on your annual combined or provisional income calculation.

And the IRS requires withdrawals. Remember that by law RMDs (required minimum distributions) must be taken every year beginning at age 73 and strict rules apply. You must withdraw money from the right accounts in the right amounts by the deadlines or pay a penalty in addition to the income tax you will owe on the mandated distributions.
Planning ahead to do a series of Roth conversions—shifting money in taxable accounts to tax-free* Roth accounts—might be indicated to help lower taxes for the long-term in your case, but these must be planned carefully and are not reversible.

Let’s talk about your financial and retirement goals and create a plan to help you achieve them. Don’t put it off—give us a call! You can reach Drew Capital Group in Tampa at 813.820.0069.

*In order for Roth accounts to be tax-free, all conditions must be met, including owning the account for at least five years.
This article is for general information only and should not be considered as financial, tax or legal advice. It is strongly recommended that you seek out the advice of a financial professional, tax professional and/or legal professional before making any financial or retirement decisions.

Sources:

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/040315/why-save-retirement-your-20s.asp
https://www.medicare.gov/basics/costs/medicare-costs/avoid-penalties
https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/fact-sheets/2024-medicare-parts-b-premiums-and-deductibles
https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/planner/agereduction.html
https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/retirement/social-security-at-62
https://content.schwab.com/web/retail/public/book/excerpt-single-4.html
https://www-origin.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/planner/taxes.html
https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/retirement-plan-and-ira-required-minimum-distributions-faqs

Jun 12

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Annuity Sales Are Surging. Do You Know What They Are?

By BayTrust Financial Retirement Planning

We’re here to help clear up some of the confusion about annuities during Annuity Awareness Month, which happens each June!

In the first quarter of 2024, U.S. annuity sales were $106.7 billion, the highest first quarter total since the 1980s, when LIMRA first started tracking annuity sales. Despite these high sales numbers, research indicates that many people don’t really know what annuities are.

One recent study revealed that only 9% of consumers say they feel very knowledgeable about annuities, while other studies confirm this lack of understanding. Research by the American College of Financial Services gave older Americans a score of 12% out of a possible 100% for their knowledge of annuities based on their performance on a short quiz. And a TIAA Institute and Stanford University study showed that the annuity ranks dead last—respondents know more about Medicare, life insurance and long-term care than annuities.

During Annuity Awareness Month, we wanted to cover some facts we hope will help you understand annuities better.

Annuities Are Ancient

The concept of the annuity goes back centuries. In fact, during the Roman Empire, soldiers and their families would receive annual payments for life known as “annuas” in return for their military service; this is the origin of the word “annuity.” In the Middle Ages, annuities were available in France during the 17^th century, when lifetime annuities (called “tontines”) could be purchased from feudal lords in exchange for an initial upfront payment.

In other words, for millennia, annuities have been around to provide regular income during retirement. Fast forward to today.

Annuities Are Contracts

When you invest in something, typically you assume all the risk. Since annuities are not investments, but instead are contracts between you and an insurance carrier, one of the main risks you assume with annuities is that the payouts will be made per the terms in your contract. Certain contractual guarantees* are made by any insurance company which issues an annuity, and these guarantees are subject to that company’s financial strength and claims-paying ability.

It is very important that you have a trusted financial professional, tax professional and/or legal professional by your side to examine the terms and language of your annuity contract as well as provide information about the insurance company’s financial rating before you make any decision.

In fact, this is good advice when making any decision that involves investing or entering into any kind of a contract. Some financial industry experts and academic leaders in the financial field, like Dr. Wade Pfau and Dr. Roger Ibbotson, have found that annuities belong in the fixed portion of some people’s retirement portfolios (depending on their individual situation) because of insurance company guarantees, and because some annuities may perform better than stock market investments for retirees.

But there are many different types of annuity contracts.

Today’s Annuities Are Complex

Despite their simple structure in the beginning, annuities have become increasingly sophisticated over time. In addition to providing retirement income, insurance companies have added more features to provide retirees with coverage for spouses, long-term care, death benefit for heirs, etc., either as part of the basic annuity or added on as a rider for an additional cost.

While not a comprehensive list, below is basic information about how some annuities work. We recommend that you work with a financial professional to help you compare and choose between the hundreds of annuity contracts available from dozens of different insurance companies. As with any contract, it’s important to read and understand the fine print before you sign, and you should compare policies from multiple insurance companies to find the best value. That’s where a good independent financial advisor can help.

Fixed Annuities

Fixed annuities are probably the easiest type of annuity to understand because they work similarly to the way a bank CD (certificate of deposit) works. An insurance company will pay a fixed interest rate on your fixed annuity contract for a selected term, usually from one to 15 years.

Variable Annuities

Variable annuities were developed in the 1950s, and unlike most other types of annuities, before purchase they require that you be issued a prospectus, since part of your money will actually be invested in the stock market. This means that there is market risk involved with variable annuities—you can either make money on the amount invested in what’s called “sub-accounts,” or you can lose it depending on market performance.

Variable annuities can’t be sold by an investment advisor, they have to be through a Series 6 or Series 7 licensed, registered representative who is affiliated with a broker/dealer. (NOTE: A registered representative might sometimes be a dual-licensed broker/dealer.) There are a few companies who are now offering annuities that are fee based and do not pay commissions; however, the list is very small.

Variable annuities are considered highest risk because growth is based on market performance and the annual fees tend to be very high, especially if the client purchases a rider as one of the annuity features.

Variable annuities are usually purchased with the expectation that at some point the contract owner will annuitize or begin taking periodic payments. But depending on contract terms, your annuity payments may fluctuate based on stock market performance, and it’s possible that some variable annuity policies can lose principal due to stock market losses.

Fixed Indexed Annuities

Fixed indexed annuities (FIAs) were first designed in 1995. The biggest difference between FIAs and variable annuities is that fixed indexed annuities are not actually invested in the stock market so they are not subject to market risk. Instead, a selected index (such as the S&P 500) is used as a benchmark for policy credits at periodic intervals, such as annually.

Many FIA contracts offer a minimum amount which gets credited, and nearly all FIA contracts will not credit less than 0%, which means even that if the benchmark index loses money, your FIA contract value will not go down. With fixed indexed annuities, after you have owned the policy for a specified number of years (called the “surrender period”) your principal is guaranteed* and credits, therefore any policy gains, are locked in.

In other words, with fixed indexed annuity contracts, you have the potential to participate in market gains but are protected from market downturns. And most FIAs offer the option of lifetime income no matter how long you live either as part of the main annuity contract, or available as a rider for an additional charge.

Other Things to Know About Annuities

*The guarantees provided by annuities rely on the claims-paying ability and financial strength of the issuing insurance company.

Some annuities can be purchased on a deferred basis, and some on an immediate basis, and you can use pre-tax or after-tax funds. It’s important to get professional help to understand the implications for your particular situation.

Annuities must be considered carefully based on your particular situation because they are not liquid. Almost all annuities are subject to early withdrawal penalties. Make sure you understand the contract terms and the type of annuity you are purchasing. Your financial advisor and tax and legal professionals can help you compare and analyze policies.

Are You Prepared for Retirement?

With people living much longer and pensions quickly becoming a thing of the past, annuities can help provide income throughout retirement and help quell the fear of running out of money. If you are considering the purchase of an annuity, it’s important to speak with a financial professional who understands them, and can explain the fine print of an annuity contract.

Contact us to explore your options! You can reach Drew Capital Group in Tampa at 813.820.0069.

This article is provided for general information purposes only and is accurate to the best of our knowledge. This article is not to be relied on or considered as investment or tax advice.

Sources:

https://www.limra.com/en/newsroom/news-releases/2024/limra-first-quarter-u.s.-annuity-sales-mark-14th-consecutive-quarter-of-growth/

https://insurancenewsnet.com/oarticle/consumer-knowledge-gap-persists-despite-booming-annuity-sales

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/04/30/annuities-are-good-retirement-investment/73437135007/

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w6001/w6001.pdf

NOTE: Annual fees can be high with any type of annuity. Please check with your financial professional to examine fees before purchasing.

Fixed Annuity: A fixed annuity is for retirement or other long-term financial needs. It is intended for a person who has sufficient cash or other liquid assets for living expenses and other unexpected emergencies, such as medical expenses. A fixed annuity is not a registered security or stock market investment and does not participate in any stock or equity investment or index. Guarantees are based on the claims paying ability of the issuing company.

Indexed Annuity: An indexed annuity is for retirement or other long-term financial needs. It is intended for a person who has sufficient cash or other liquid assets for living expenses and other unexpected emergencies, such as medical expenses. Guarantees provided by annuities are subject to the financial strength of the issuing company and not guaranteed by any bank or the FDIC.

Indexed annuities do not directly participate in any stock or equity investment. Clients who purchase indexed annuities are not directly investing in the financial market. Market indices may not include dividends paid on the underlying stocks and therefore may not reflect the total return of the underlying stocks; neither a market index nor any indexed annuity is comparable to a direct investment in the financial markets.

Variable Annuity: Variable annuities are offered only by prospectus. Carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of variable annuities before investing. This and other information is contained in each fund’s prospectus, which can be obtained from your investment professional and should be read carefully before investing. Guarantees are based upon the claims paying ability of the issuer.

If a registered representative (IAR, investment adviser representative) is dual-licensed and is also a registered rep with a broker/dealer, variable annuity advertising may need to be filed with FINRA through their broker/dealer.

Variable annuities are long-term, tax-deferred investments designed for retirement, involve investment risks, and may lose value. Earnings are taxable as ordinary income when distributed. Individuals may be subject to a 10% additional tax for withdrawals before age 59† unless an exception to the tax is met.

May 30

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What is Sequence of Returns Risk?

By BayTrust Financial Retirement Planning

Sequence of returns risk can put your retirement portfolio in jeopardy, but what is it, and how do you fight it?

We get it. Retirement can be scary. We know this because it’s our job to help our clients plan for and seamlessly transition into what should be one of the most rewarding times of their lives. What we often find, however, is that most are worried about retirement because of the risks that come with it. But what are some of the risks that strike fear in the hearts of retirement hopefuls? Well, the first is related to longevity—it’s the possibility of running out of money as you get older, and being unable to go back to work in order to support yourself. We also find that people getting ready to retire are concerned about inflation, the cost of health care, the possibility of needing long-term care and more.

There’s one risk, however, that hides in the shadows, waiting to rear its ugly head and throw turbulence into the lives of new retirees and those right on the edge of retirement. It’s called market risk, or the possibility that you could lose your retirement money during market crashes or downturns. How might this look? Specifically, something called sequence of returns risk can be the most dangerous aspect of market risk. And while it might sound complicated, it’s a simple concept with the potential to have major implications on your retirement dreams. Let’s go over what sequence of returns risk is, as well as a few ways you may be able to fight it!

What is Sequence of Returns Risk?

Simply put, sequence of returns risk is the risk of negative market returns occurring right before you retire and/or very early in your retirement. During this time, market downturns can have a much more significant impact on your portfolio.

Again, it might sound like some buzzword the financial industry throws around to scare consumers, but sequence of returns risk is exactly what it sounds like. It’s the sequence, or the order, in which your portfolio provides market returns. It’s key to remember that sequence of returns risk is specifically associated with money directly invested in the market. That means it could apply to vehicles like employer-sponsored retirement accounts, traditional and Roth IRAs, mutual funds, brokerage accounts, variable annuities and any other assets that can lose value during market downturns.

Now, let’s think about your goals for your retirement. If you’re just starting your career, or you’re right in the middle of your working years, you may contribute to your various saving and investing vehicles with the goal of having a large pool of funds when you finally retire at, say, 65 years old. You’d hope that diligent saving and favorable returns would bring your assets to their highest total right at that point, giving you ample funds to draw from once you retire.

Sequence of returns risk is the potential of the market dipping near the end of your career, or in the first few years of your retirement, meaning those drops affect your account balances at their peak. You would then take losses on greater amounts of money, creating greater losses. While you never want to experience dips, it makes sense why you’d hope those periods of market volatility that you will likely encounter at some point during retirement occur farther down the road, especially when you’re concurrently withdrawing money to support your lifestyle.

An Example Where Both Retirees Have $1 Million Saved

Just as an example, let’s consider two retirees, and what happens during their first 10 years of retirement. Both have $1 million saved, and they both determine they need to withdraw $50,000 per year from their accounts to fund their lifestyles.

Our first retiree is lucky. They retire and then experience eight years of a bull market, growing their portfolio by 5% each year. In the next two years, however, they experience declines of 5%, bringing their balance back down.

The other retiree sees the exact opposite sequence. They immediately encounter a bear market upon entering retirement, which drops their accounts by 5% in each of the first two years. Then the market rebounds and goes up 5% each year for the next eight years.

Both retirees continued to withdraw $50,000 per year from their accounts. So, what was the result?

Even though both retirees had the same initial balance, withdrew the same amounts, experienced eight years of bull markets and two years of bear markets, the order or “sequence of returns” made a big difference.

The first retiree didn’t experience market dips at the beginning when their account balances were highest. At the end of the 10-year period, they still had $788,329 left in their account.

The other retiree, on the other hand, wasn’t so lucky. They took losses during the first two years of their retirement, on their highest balances, and by the end of the 10-year period, they only had $695,226.

Please remember this example is purely hypothetical and not reflective of real scenarios or real people. We simply used a starting balance of $1 million for each person, then subtracted $50,000 in income at the beginning of each year, then multiplied the accounts’ balances by the annual positive or negative effect on the market we imagined for this example. Actual market returns are unpredictable and tend to vary far more than in the case study shown. This is strictly to display the potential effects of the aforementioned risk.

What are Some Ways to Mitigate Sequence of Returns Risk?

You can see how the sequence of your returns can affect your portfolio. The market is unpredictable and bottomless, so it’s important to try to shield yourself from, or at least mitigate the possibility of, taking those losses at the starting gate. But how can you do that when the market is completely out of your control? Well, you have a few options.

First and foremost, you can work with a financial professional to diversify your portfolio. While diversification can never guarantee any level of protection or growth, it may give you the ability to withstand dips in certain sectors of the market. It also spreads risk across different asset classes, or even different categories within the market itself. That can potentially help you avoid taking losses in your entire portfolio, even if one sector experiences headwinds.

For instance, non-correlated asset classes, which could include annuities or life insurance policies, might be a retirement diversification option for some people. Modern policy designs like fixed-indexed annuities and indexed universal life insurance policies are typically linked to a market index, while not actually participating in the market. These products can provide the upside of market gains while still protecting the principal, or the money used to fund the policy, in addition to locking in the gains.

These solutions may not match every consumer’s situation or financial objectives, however, so it’s important to speak to your advisor to explore policies and see if they make sense for your portfolio. For some people, annuities can provide a stream of retirement income that can cover lifestyle expenses, allowing retirees to leave their assets in the market during downturns rather than being forced to make withdrawals.

Be sure to speak with a financial professional who understands your circumstances, goals and tolerance for risk. The right partner can help you develop a custom withdrawal strategy and a plan to generate a reliable stream of income with your accumulated retirement assets. Your plan may include portfolio diversification, the establishment of a liquid emergency fund, the inclusion of alternative strategies and more, all with the intention of making your money last your entire life.

If you have any questions about how you can fight sequence of returns risk, give us a call today!

This article is not to be construed as financial advice. It is provided for informational purposes only and it should not be relied upon. It is recommended that you check with your financial advisor, tax professional and legal professionals when making any investment decisions, or any changes to your retirement or estate plans. Your investments, insurance and savings vehicles should match your risk tolerance and be suitable as well as what’s best for your personal financial situation.

Feb 23

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6 Financial Tips for Couples

By BayTrust Financial Financial Planning

Money can be a major obstacle for couples. Here are a few ways to overcome it.

Do you remember when you first met your partner? So many things about them might have captivated you. Maybe it was their eyes, their hair or their smile. Maybe you started talking and you fell in love with their outlook on life, their fun-loving attitude or their sense of humor. We’re willing to bet, however, it wasn’t your aligned financial philosophies that initially drew you to each other, even if financial stability was high on your list of priorities for potential partners.

At the same time, maybe that should be something you look for in your other half. Nearly 50% of Americans say they argue with their significant other about money, while 41% of Gen Xers and 29% of baby boomers attribute their divorce to financial disagreements^[1]. One of our goals is to give you the stability that can eliminate financial stress, trimming your worries when it comes to your happily ever after. Here are six tips for couples looking to achieve their financial goals together!

Communicate Effectively

Of course, communication is the key to a healthy relationship. It’s no secret. In fact, you’ve probably heard this old adage your entire life, but hearing it is different from comprehending it and acting upon it. Additionally, while it’s important when sharing your needs and overcoming conflict, it’s just as important to have open, honest, confident communication about your finances. In our experience, the majority of the battle is normalizing the conversation. Remember, you’re not just combining finances; you’re combining your entire lives, so this discussion shouldn’t be taboo. To make it easier, it can be a good idea to start with simple topics. Go over things like income, how you feel about different retirement accounts, your experience investing or how comfortable you feel with risk. You can then let the conversation naturally evolve to encompass more complex topics, or you can tackle new problems as they arise. It’s key to consider that you’re equal partners, both in life and in money, and it’s crucial to have these discussions before and during a serious relationship.

Choose a Strategy

Once you’ve broken the barrier to financial discussion, it can be helpful to choose a strategy for how you’ll combine your finances. Some couples, for example, find it easiest to simply combine all their assets, giving meaning to the phrase, “What’s mine is yours.” Others, however, may feel more comfortable keeping their assets separate and handling their own personal expenses. Most commonly, a couple will land somewhere in the middle with a few select combined accounts and some solo accounts. This can help each person maintain some of their individuality and independence while also offering some guidance as to who’s responsible for different financial obligations. Spend some time discussing these options with your partner, and be completely open and honest to foster healthy communication in the present and future.

Set Measurable, Realistic Goals

Identify goals that are important to both of you, especially if you want to achieve them together. Whether those are short- term goals or long-term, this gives you something to work toward, unifying your vision and objectives to keep you on the same page. It can also help you maintain control over your financial decisions and your priorities. Ensuring those goals are measurable and realistic is also important. In addition to the satisfaction that comes with watching yourself climb toward your objectives, reaching measurable milestones can be motivating, pushing you and your partner to continue saving and spending with the future in mind.

Budget Effectively

As a couple, you’re a team. That means working together to reach common goals. There’s also power in finding financial strength together, so constructing a budget, controlling your spending, and expressing your thoughts freely can help you grow as a duo. When building that budget, it’s important to start by having a conversation about your priorities. Lay them out clearly, and work together to determine which expenses are “needs” and which expenses are “wants.” You’ll probably want to prioritize essentials, like food, your home, your transportation, and other necessary living expenses. You may want to move on to outstanding debt, determining how much you can realistically pay down in a given period. As partners, you should also hold each other accountable, knowing that sticking to the budget is what’s better for both. Then, know you can tweak your budget as your circumstances change and evolve.

Choose the Right Financial Partner

The right financial partner or professional can help you develop and work toward your goals. Oftentimes, this means finding someone who understands your current circumstances, is able to read you and your partner as people, and is willing to work in your best interests. This can be tricky, but remember, this is your livelihood we’re talking about. It’s more than understandable if you’re skeptical when choosing someone to control your assets. Additionally, if you think it’s the right time to start working with a professional, ask many questions to determine if they’re the right person to help you achieve your goals. While you may feel like you’re on the hot seat as they ask about your saving and spending, it’s just as much of an opportunity for you to assess how effective or helpful they will be in the construction of your plan or portfolio.

Develop an Actionable Plan

Once you understand your cashflow, habits, budget and goals as a couple, it’s time to develop a plan that offers specific direction and sets you into motion. Oftentimes, this is the blueprint for your future, giving both you and your partner rules to adhere to. It should also be comprehensive, meaning that it accounts for each aspect of your life. Determine how you’ll utilize specific retirement accounts, as well as if you’re comfortable having your money exposed to market risk. You can also explore options for insurance policies, which can be crucial if you want to protect your loved ones in the event of the worst. Furthermore, revisit your plan on a regular basis. Maybe your risk tolerance has changed, you feel you can contribute more to your savings vehicles, your beneficiaries have changed, you need different levels of insurance coverage, or you’re ready to graduate into retirement. Your plan plays a key role in achieving both your short- and long-term goals, and having one that you believe in can make all the difference.

We believe that money should never hinder your relationship. If you have any questions about how you can effectively combine and develop a plan for your finances as a couple, give us a call today!

Sources:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-common-behavior-is-the-no-1-predictor-of-whether-youll-get-divorced-2018-01-10

Jan 29

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5 Things You Should Know if You’re Retiring in 2024

By BayTrust Financial Retirement, Retirement Planning

Heads up! If you plan to retire this year, you should know these five things.

Are you planning to enter the most exciting phase of your life in 2024? A phase where you get to do what you want to do, not what you have to do? With the right planning and preparation, it’s possible, but you should be aware of the year-over-year changes that occur for retirees, especially if this is your first year. Here are five changes you should know about if you plan on entering retirement in 2024.

Higher Income Tax Brackets^[1,2]

Traditionally, tax brackets rise with inflation on an annual basis, and 2024 is no different. For instance, the top end of the 0% capital gains bracket is up from $44,625 to $47,025 for single filers and from $89,250 to $94,050 for those who are married and filing jointly. Retirees who expect to withdraw from accounts subject to income tax—like traditional 401(k)s—may also expect to see a bit more relief this year in their income. See below for 2024’s ordinary income tax brackets.

Rate (%)	Filing Single	Married Filing Jointly	Married Filing Separately	Head of Household
10%	$0 to $11,600	$0 to $23,200	$0 to $11,600	$0 to $16,550
12%	$11,601 to $47150	$23,201 to $94,300	$11,601 to $47,150	$16,551 to $63,100
22%	$47,151 to $100,525	$94,301 to $201,050	$47,151 to $100,525	$63,101 to $100,500
24%	$100,526 to $191,950	$201,051 to $383,900	$100,526 to $191,950	$100,501 to $191,950
32%	$191,951 to $243,725	$383,901 to $487,450	$191,951 to $243,725	$191,951 to $243,700
35%	$243,726 to $609,350	$487,451 to $731,200	$243,726 to $365,600	$243,701 to $609,350
37%	$609,351 or more	$731,201 or more	$365,601 or more	$609,351 or more

Higher RMD Ages^[3]

As of Jan. 1, 2023, retirees must begin taking required minimum distributions at age 73 unless they’ve already started. This was part of a gradual change made by SECURE Act 2.0 that will again raise the RMD age to 75 in 2033. This change can offer more flexibility to retirees who don’t need the money from their qualified accounts and otherwise would have incurred unnecessary income taxes. It also gives them an extra year to find other sources of income or to convert those funds to tax-free money. If you are turning 73 in 2024, your first year required minimum distribution from your qualifying accounts must be withdrawn by Apr. 1, 2025. In subsequent years, they must be withdrawn by the end of the year, or you may incur a 25% excise tax, which may be dropped to 10% if corrected in a timely manner.

Elimination of RMDs for Roth 401(k)s^[4]

One of the perks of the Roth IRA is that it does not come with required minimum distributions because you purchase them with already-taxed money. Roth 401(k) accounts through your employer were the same—except for the employer matching part. Before the passage of the SECURE 2.0 legislation, if your employer offered matching contributions and you chose a Roth 401(k) instead of a traditional 401(k) account, employer matching funds had to be placed into an entirely separate pre-tax traditional account which was taxable. Then, upon reaching RMD age, withdrawals were mandated for both accounts, even though taxes were only due on the matching portion.

Now, as of the passage of the SECURE 2.0 legislation, employers at their discretion can offer their matching amounts on an after-tax basis into Roth 401(k)s or Roth 403(b)s. If your employer offers this option and you choose it, you will owe income taxes on the employer match portion in the year you receive the money, but RMDs will no longer be due.

Preparation for 2026 Tax Cut Sunsets^[5]

Though tax cuts sunsetting at the end of 2025 won’t immediately impact 2024 retirees now, it may be crucial to begin preparing for the 2026 tax year. While the federal estate and gift tax exemption amount is currently $13.61 million per individual, it’s expected to drop back down to below $7 million in 2026. For those with larger estates, that could slice the amount of tax-free money going to beneficiaries in half. Income tax rates could also revert to what they were prior to 2018, meaning that it may be helpful to convert taxable income to tax-free income—for instance, by using Roth conversions—in the next two years. Additionally, those impacted by this change could also look to work with a financial professional to implement long-term tax strategies that give them the opportunity to pass their wealth to their beneficiaries as efficiently as possible.

Higher Medicare Costs but Increased Social Security Payments^[6,7]

Medicare costs are also up in 2024. Though Part A is free to beneficiaries, it does come with an annual deductible, which is up $32 from $1,600 to $1,632. Medicare Part B premiums are also up in 2024 from $164.90 to $174.40, an increase of roughly 6%. It’s important to know that those premiums are traditionally deducted from Social Security payments, which typically also rises with a cost-of-living adjustment determined by the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or the CPI-W. In 2024, that increase is 3.2%, so while the adjusted checks won’t be entirely proportionate to the higher Part B premiums, the COLA may help to offset the extra costs.

If you think you’re ready to retire in 2024, we can help! Give us a call today to work with a professional and start the transition into the most exciting time of your life. You can reach Drew Capital Group in Tampa at 813.820.0069.

Sources:

Dec 27

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Your 2023 Year-End Financial To-Do List

By BayTrust Financial Financial Planning

The end of the year is upon us. Here are some tasks to check off before 2024 arrives!

It’s that special time of the year when the holiday spirit is in the air, good friends are always near, and family time fills up our schedules. It’s also the perfect time to take financial inventory and reassess your plan to see if it still aligns with your goals. You may need to make tweaks, as your circumstances have almost certainly changed. Maybe that’s because of a major life event or an unexpected expense, which most people experience or incur over the course of a year. It’s only normal, but it can be helpful to ensure that you’re still on track toward the future you idealized. Here are a few things you can do to prepare for the turn of the calendar!

Review Your Financial Plan

Your financial plan is never meant to be a “set-it-and-forget-it” type of document. Just like the economic landscape, it’s supposed to change, and the end of the year can be the perfect time to make necessary adjustments that get you back on track toward your goals. Sometimes, those changes can even be for the better or because you had a successful year. For example, maybe you are quickly approaching or have already surpassed a goal you set at the beginning of the year. You can recalibrate your approach for both the short and long term to keep yourself motivated. If you find that you’ve suffered an unfortunate setback, that’s also okay. Your plan is a great place to start when trying to get back on track toward your ideal destination.

Adjust Your Monthly Budget

As we near the end of the calendar year, you may have a better idea of your current income and expenditures. Sometimes, that can help you create a more accurate budget, especially if that budget aligns with your financial plan. Additionally, you might have received a nice annual bonus or raise, giving you some more leeway or freedom in your budget, or giving you extra funds to save or create an emergency fund. On the other hand, maybe you had a baby or accrued unforeseen home, auto or medical bills, forcing you to take a moment and reprioritize. Whether you believe you’ve taken a step forward or a step back, mapping out your expenditures and tweaking your budget accordingly can be helpful as we head into 2024.

Review Your Investments

How did your investments perform this year? If you can’t answer that question, it’s probably a good idea to look, especially if you plan on using that money in retirement. Remember, the years leading up to retirement and the first few years of retirement are the most dangerous times to experience market volatility, as you likely take those losses when your asset totals are the highest. It can also be helpful to further diversify your portfolio or build a new asset allocation that aligns better with your goals. Though diversification certainly doesn’t promise either growth or protection, different asset classes can offer different features, potentially giving you the opportunity to achieve protection through varying and potentially less volatile investment or saving vehicles.

Recalibrate Your Retirement Account Contributions ^[1,2,3,4]

No matter which stage of your career you’re currently at, it’s important to know how much of your income you can contribute to your various retirement accounts, such as 401(k)s, IRAs, 403(b)s, 457 plans, SEP IRAs and SIMPLE IRAs. For example, in 2023, the contribution limit for traditional and Roth IRA accounts is $6,500. That amount will increase to $7,000 for the 2024 tax year. If you’re older than 50, you can also make catch-up contributions up to $1,000. The contribution limit for a 401(k) participant is $22,500 for the 2023 tax year; however, that will rise to $23,000 in 2024. Catch up contributions of up to $7,500 can also be made to 401(k) accounts for those 50 and older. NOTE: These limits are imposed on individuals, not accounts, so the limits are on total contributions to all of your different employer-sponsored accounts or IRAs. It’s also important to remember that you can contribute to your IRA for 2023 until Tax Day of 2024, which is on Monday, Apr. 15. 401(k) contributions, however, must be made by the end of the year.

Take Your RMDs ^[5,6]

If you must begin taking RMDs in 2023 or you’ve already begun taking RMDs, those funds must be withdrawn by the end of the calendar year to avoid incurring a 25% excise tax. That makes right now the perfect time to ensure that you’ve withdrawn an adequate amount, as there is still time to pull from your qualified retirement accounts. It can also be beneficial to speak to your financial advisor who can help you calculate your RMDs, as they’re typically determined by your expected lifespan and asset total. To see when you must begin taking RMDs, please refer to the chart below!

Date of Birth	RMD Age
June 30, 1949, or Before	70 ½
July 1, 1959, to Dec. 31, 1950	72
Jan. 1, 1951, to Dec. 31, 1959	73
Jan. 1, 1960, or After	75

Spend Money Left in Your FSA ^[7,8]

Flexible savings accounts, or FSAs, are accounts funded by pre-tax money that allow you to use tax-free funds to pay for qualifying health expenses. They can be extremely helpful for those looking for tax advantages for services that are not covered by their health care plan, including deductibles and co-pays. While you may have a grace period provided by your employer, with most FSAs you must spend the money for qualifying health expenses by the end of the year or risk losing it. Some expenses that traditionally qualify include general wellness appointments, annual physicals, visits to specialists, dental cleanings, eyeglasses or in-home care equipment.

Similar to FSAs, HSAs, or health savings accounts, can be used for medical expenses, but the accounts are permanent and stay with the owner. HSAs are tax-deductible and can grow and build up tax-free to cover a long list of medical, health, dental and vision expenses, usually in retirement. In order to open and begin contributing to an HSA, you must purchase a high-deductible health plan that qualifies, or be offered an HDHP through your employer. You cannot contribute to an HSA when you are over the age of 65.

Review Your Workplace Benefits and Beneficiaries

Most benefits plans change on a year-to-year basis, and those changes are typically outlined by your human resources department during the open enrollment period. If your employer provides benefits packages, be sure to go through your benefits guide to know exactly what you’re entitled to and how you can leverage those perks to your advantage. For example, you may be able to select from different health care packages, or you might be able to opt into an HSA or FSA. It’s also important to review beneficiaries who are on your plan, as their needs may differ on a year-to-year basis.

Talk to Your Financial Professional or Advisor

Your financial professional, planner or advisor is meant to be your personal advocate and consultant when it comes to your financial and lifestyle goals. That means they can help you determine whether you’re on track to reach your goals. If not, they can work with you to set more reasonable expectations, but if you find yourself on the right track, they can help you further purpose your money for both the short- and long-term future. Additionally, your advisor should soon be calling to set up an annual meeting with you to discuss updated options, new regulations, developments in the marketplace and more. As we close out the year, now is the perfect time to have that meeting and prepare for new circumstances and the new year.

If you have any questions about your year-end financial to-do list and how you can prepare for the year ahead, please give us a call today! You can reach Drew Capital Group in Tampa at 813.820.0069.

Sources:

All information contained herein is derived from sources deemed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed. All views/opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views/opinions held by Advisory Services Network, LLC.

Advisory Services Network, LLC does not provide tax advice. The tax information contained herein is general and is not exhaustive by nature. Federal and state laws are complex and constantly changing. You should always consult your own legal or tax professional for information concerning your individual situation.

BayTrust Financial

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