BayTrust Financial, Author at BayTrust Financial

Sep 10

Mitch Zacks – Weekly Market Commentary: Earnings Strength Confirms Resilience, But Leadership Remains Narrow

By BayTrust Financial Weekly Market Commentary

The Q2 2025 earnings season is wrapping up, with just a handful of companies left to report. The results provide a clear message: American corporations found ways to power ahead, despite a challenging backdrop of tariffs, policy uncertainty, and shifting global demand.

As I write, total Q2 2025 earnings are on track to rise by +12.1% from a year earlier on +6.1% higher revenues. Long time readers of my column know how much weight I place on strong earnings results. But the real market-moving feature of this earnings season was not just the strong results. It was about how much they exceeded expectations.¹

Take a look at the chart below. You can see that 80.3% of S&P 500 companies exceeded earnings per share (EPS) estimates, which is nicely above the five-year average of 77.9%. The percentage of companies that beat revenue estimates also stands out as well above the five-year average and previous years’ results.²

The one sentence takeaway: businesses are still spending, consumers are still buying, and markets have responded accordingly.

This is not a cause for being ‘pound the table bullish,’ however. As I’ve written in recent columns, the feedback loop on tariffs and other policy changes is not immediate. Companies front-ran many tariffs and have worked through inventory, without having to pass on too many costs to consumers or see a big impact on margins. But this can’t continue indefinitely.

If tariffs persist at current levels, or rise further, more companies will likely need to raise prices, which could eventually weigh on demand. Business investment data also point to the same caution. While equipment spending looked solid in Q2, investment in structures fell -10.3%, and R&D registered its third consecutive decline. Both trends hint at executives becoming more selective about long-term projects until they see a clearer policy direction.

Leadership in the market also remains narrow. Technology firms continue to drive much of the growth story. In Q2, Tech sector earnings grew at a double-digit pace, propelled by demand for data centers, chips, and software tied to AI. The “Magnificent 7” stocks in particular have been standout performers, with earnings up +26.4% year-over-year on +15.5% higher revenues. While this leadership has lifted indexes, it has also concentrated risk. Excluding the Tech sector, Q3 earnings for the rest of the S&P 500 are expected to rise just +2.1%, compared with +5% overall. That discrepancy highlights how much weight a small group of companies continues to carry.

There are reasons to be cautious, but on balance, the economy continues to look ‘steady state’ to me. For Q3, S&P 500 earnings are projected to grow +5% from last year on +6% revenue growth. Notably, estimates have ticked higher since the start of July, which is a reversal from recent years when estimates tended to drift lower as the quarter progressed. The growth engine continues to run hottest in a few specific places like Tech, so we’ll need to see if that strength continues to broaden. It’s a reminder that investors should be mindful of concentration and avoid extrapolating recent gains as if they were uniform across the market. It’s important to be selective.

Bottom Line for Investors

Second-quarter earnings confirmed what markets have been signaling for months: resilience is still the operative word for the U.S. economy and corporate profits. Upward revisions to Q3 estimates and continued consumer spending are encouraging signs that growth hasn’t run out of steam. But it would be a mistake to assume the rally will be a straight line higher from here. The earnings picture remains top-heavy, and companies may not be able to shield consumers from higher tariff costs indefinitely.

Overall, I think the backdrop remains bullish, supported by healthy profits, fiscal tailwinds, and a still-strong labor market. Staying invested is the right approach, but balancing exposure beyond the biggest winners can help ensure portfolios remain positioned for whatever the next phase of this expansion delivers.

¹Wall Street Journal. April 28, 2025. https://advisor.zacksim.com/e/376582/onomy-trendingnow-article-pos5/5tj7by/1310520493/h/gMfhEJJWnxSoKzUFqNyuFAcg2GLIuStlz5bnUo-tzGk

²Zacks.com August 27, 2025. https://advisor.zacksim.com/e/376582/q2-retail-earnings-good-or-bad/5tj7c2/1310520493/h/gMfhEJJWnxSoKzUFqNyuFAcg2GLIuStlz5bnUo-tzGk

DISCLOSURE
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The Russell 1000 Growth Index is a well-known, unmanaged index of the prices of 1000 large-company growth common stocks selected by Russell. The Russell 1000 Growth Index assumes reinvestment of dividends but does not reflect advisory fees. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. The volatility of the benchmark may be materially different from the individual performance obtained by a specific investor.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average measures the daily stock market movements of 30 U.S. publicly-traded companies listed on the NASDAQ or the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The 30 publicly-owned companies are considered leaders in the United States economy. An investor cannot directly invest in an index. The volatility of the benchmark may be materially different from the individual performance obtained by a specific investor.

The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index is a flagship measure of global investment grade debt from twenty-four local currency markets. This multi-currency benchmark includes treasury, government-related, corporate and securitized fixed-rate bonds from both developed and emerging markets issuers. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. The volatility of the benchmark may be materially different from the individual performance obtained by a specific investor.

The ICE Exchange-Listed Fixed & Adjustable Rate Preferred Securities Index is a modified market capitalization weighted index composed of preferred stock and securities that are functionally equivalent to preferred stock including, but not limited to, depositary preferred securities, perpetual subordinated debt and certain securities issued by banks and other financial institutions that are eligible for capital treatment with respect to such instruments akin to that received for issuance of straight preferred stock. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. The volatility of the benchmark may be materially different from the individual performance obtained by a specific investor.

The MSCI ACWI ex U.S. Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 22 of 23 Developed Markets (DM) countries (excluding the United States) and 24 Emerging Markets (EM) countries. The index covers approximately 85% of the global equity opportunity set outside the U.S. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. The volatility of the benchmark may be materially different from the individual performance obtained by a specific investor.

The Russell 2000 Index is a well-known, unmanaged index of the prices of 2000 small-cap company common stocks, selected by Russell. The Russell 2000 Index assumes reinvestment of dividends but does not reflect advisory fees. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. The volatility of the benchmark may be materially different from the individual performance obtained by a specific investor.

The S&P Mid Cap 400 provides investors with a benchmark for mid-sized companies. The index, which is distinct from the large-cap S&P 500, is designed to measure the performance of 400 mid-sized companies, reflecting the distinctive risk and return characteristics of this market segment.

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Sep 03

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Mitch Zacks – Weekly Market Commentary: Why a September Rate Cut Likely Won’t Impact Markets Much

By BayTrust Financial Weekly Market Commentary

The financial media and many in the investor community are eyeing the Fed’s September meeting with bated breath. I’m already looking past it.

At this stage, markets are pricing in a 100% probability of a 25-basis-point cut, with a very small chance of a larger 50-point move. As I’ve written many times before, markets move on surprises, not widely known information. When it comes to the upcoming Fed decision, the surprise factor is essentially nil. The Fed has been telegraphing its thinking pretty clearly for weeks.¹

Rate cuts make for dramatic headlines, but in practice, they rarely alter the trend already in motion. When the Fed started cutting rates in January 2001 (nearly a year into the dot-com bust), stocks fell another 40% before finally bottoming in 2002. When the Fed cut rates in September 2007, the S&P 500 peaked just a few weeks later. The Global Financial Crisis followed. On both occasions, the cuts were real-time responses to worsening conditions, not tools that fundamentally changed the direction of the cycle.

Some may offer the counter-argument that Fed cuts in 1974 and 1990 were followed by powerful and lasting stock market rallies. But in those years, the Fed began cutting just months after bear markets had already bottomed. I would argue that stocks rebounded not because of the policy shift, but because the cuts happened to coincide with the early months of a new bull market. The rally was driven by positive forward-looking economic fundamentals and the anticipation of an earnings rebound, not by the central bank.

I want to be fair here, however, in acknowledging that rate cut cycles tend to be good for stocks on a forward-looking basis. On average, the S&P 500 has done reasonably well after initial cuts: about 7% forward returns over six months and roughly 12% over 12 months. But investors should not take these averages to mean that the rate cuts are the catalysts for strong returns. The cuts themselves aren’t the deciding factor—the economic and earnings cycles are. Rate cuts help, but they don’t drive.

We saw the opposite play out in 2022. For months, Fed officials downplayed the need to raise rates as inflation accelerated. Remember the “inflation is transitory” narrative? When the Fed reversed course in March and began aggressive hikes, the sudden shift was a surprise, jolting investor sentiment. It wasn’t the hikes themselves that drove the bear market—it was the abrupt change in expectations, i.e. the negative surprise. We don’t have that today.

In the current environment, we largely see a resilient U.S. economy, even as some signs of slowing are starting to show. In this economic environment, a 25-basis-point cut may steepen the yield curve slightly and marginally encourage lending. But the U.S. economy and credit creation have been holding up just fine with rates at current levels, where they’ve been since December 2022. I don’t think a widely telegraphed 25 basis point cut is going to make a major difference.

None of this is to say the direction of rates doesn’t matter. Over the long term, easier monetary policy can support growth at the margin, especially if it steepens the curve and helps banks lend. But investors should remember: The Fed is more often a follower than a leader. Cuts typically reflect conditions already visible in the data, not catalysts that create new ones.

Bottom Line for Investors

September’s rate cut will be a headline-grabber, but its pricing power on stocks is likely to be minimal, in my view. Markets already know it’s coming, and history shows Fed cuts don’t alter the prevailing trend. Investors should focus less on the drama of Fed decision day and more on the fundamentals—corporate earnings, consumer resilience, and global growth drivers. Those, not a single quarter-point move, are what shape long-term market returns.

¹Black Rock. April 25, 2025. https://advisor.zacksim.com/e/376582/tential-portfolio-implications/5thcyf/1303156704/h/QWWdKPoIzENSL0MPL39x8wdrkrkgan-gzxDrYJ_IcEM
DISCLOSURE
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss.

Aug 25

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Mitch Zacks – Weekly Market Commentary: Is There a Disconnect Forming Between the Equity Market and the Economy?

By BayTrust Financial Weekly Market Commentary

The U.S. stock market continues to hover around all-time highs, and with it, in my view, investor optimism has been on the rise. As I alluded to in last week’s column, it seems that many investors are comfortable assuming the worst of the trade war, tariff hikes, and policy uncertainty is behind us.

This may be true. But to arrive at this conclusion, it is also necessary to look past some recent weakness in economic data, where the picture suggests that growth is more middling than booming. For long-term investors, this does not necessarily signal trouble ahead. But it does argue for caution, particularly if enthusiasm is starting to shift toward complacency, as I wrote last week.¹

Let’s look at what the data is telling us.

On the surface, the U.S.’s Q2 GDP print (3.0% annualized) looked very solid. But digging into the details reveals a more mixed picture. In Q1, GDP contracted by -0.5% because imports surged nearly 38% annualized as businesses and consumers rushed to ‘front run’ new tariffs. Since imports subtract from GDP, there’s a fair argument that the economy looked weaker in the first three months than it really was.

But in Q2, that dynamic flipped.

Imports plunged more than -30% annualized, creating a statistical boost to growth. Exports fell as well, down -1.8%, as the rest of the world worked through the goods they had stockpiled earlier in the year. In my view, this indication of declining total trade is what stood out, indicating weakening overall demand in the global economy. It’s one data point, but it will be key to watch these figures for the rest of the year.

When you strip away the trade swings and look at private domestic demand, which again is a more telling signal of economic strength, in my view, the story is less rosy. Consumer spending grew at a 1.4% annualized pace, which was better than Q1 but still pretty moderate. Business investment, which is more cyclical and a key swing factor, slowed sharply from 10.3% in Q1 to just 1.9% in Q2. Investment in structures fell by double-digits, and R&D posted its third straight decline. These are signs businesses are pressing pause on long-term projects until there is more clarity on tariffs and trade policy, and to me, it’s an overlooked negative that prompts me to think more cautiously.

The jobs picture is also looking more complicated than it did a few months ago. July’s payroll growth came in at just 73,000, and prior months’ gains were revised down by a combined 258,000. The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index fell to 107.6 in July, its lowest reading since last fall. These figures suggest hiring momentum is cooling.

Finally, tariff-related pressures are increasingly evident in inflation data. The core Consumer Price Index rose 3.1% year-over-year in July, up from 2.8% in May. Producer prices surged 0.9% month-over-month, marking the biggest jump in three years. Producer prices have historically led consumer inflation data, so we could see some of this pressure in the CPI data this fall. To be fair, the inflation pass-through looks more gradual than disruptive, but it’s also early. Question marks over inflation can complicate the policy outlook, which can make markets vulnerable to a negative surprise. Remember, at this point, markets continue to price in multiple rate cuts later this year.

Bottom Line for Investors

I want to be clear that we still see the U.S. economy as resilient. That’s the bottom line. But we’re also taking a much closer look at the underlying data, which we think paints more of a ‘muddle-through’ environment than an all-clear expansion.

For investors, this isn’t a reason to turn bearish. But it is a reminder that when sentiment shifts toward complacency, caution is warranted. The market may paint a picture of a gangbuster’s economy, but the data suggests something more moderate. This gap is worth watching closely.

¹J.P. Morgan. August 15, 2025. https://advisor.zacksim.com/e/376582/-p-five-hundred-all-time-highs/5tgjff/1296872166/h/Vi704wUxa3E684HWOfTYB4ShxAFYEiJgt-KnJmeoSwQ

DISCLOSURE
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss.

Aug 19

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Mitch Zacks – Weekly Market Commentary: Are Investors Becoming Too Complacent?

By BayTrust Financial Weekly Market Commentary

A handful of trade deals have materialized, and the most severe elements of the ‘trade war’ have been dialed down. But we still inhabit a world of economic uncertainty.

The U.S.’s effective tariff rate is substantially higher than it was six months ago, the U.S. and China have yet to reach a trade agreement, and new tariffs and economic policies continue to surface. Businesses are still trying to make sense of the shifting policy landscape, which is a factor that can impede long-term planning and investment.

And yet, stocks keep rallying.

In previous columns, I’ve offered a few explanations for the strong performance off April lows. In the first four months of the year, fears about tariffs were disproportionately high. Then we got the 90-day pause, more extensions, a few deals, and dialed down tariff rates. The entire episode registered to markets as a series of “better-than-expected” outcomes, which almost always drives stocks higher. I’ve written it many times—stocks love to climb the wall of worry.¹

But the market’s strength in recent weeks looks a bit different.

There is still plenty of uncertainty regarding effective tariff rates and sectors that may be targeted, but investors seem largely unfazed by each new tariff announcement. Some market participants may be accepting that tariff rates will remain relatively high and that there will be no economic price to pay, now or in the future. But it could also be a sign of growing complacency, which if true, could be worrisome.

I’m not saying investors need to anticipate an economic downturn. I’ve recently written about the resilience of the U.S. economy, which could continue for years. I’m more concerned about investors ruling out even the possibility of an economic impact due to tariffs, assuming instead that everything is working, and will continue working, smoothly. From a sentiment perspective, this could lead to fading pessimism and growing optimism, which is another way of saying that the wall of worry may be shrinking. That’s usually a signal to look at the equity market more cautiously.

Perhaps the most “risk-on” segment of the market today is a familiar one: large-cap technology stocks. The rally we’ve seen recently gives the perception that all trade headwinds are gone, and it’s all clear from here. With big tech’s recent gains, the U.S. equity market is now the most concentrated it has been in over 50 years, with the top 10 stocks making up roughly 37% of the total market cap of the S&P 500 index. This concentration has grown much faster than the earnings those companies contribute to the index (28%), leaving one of the widest valuation and weighting gaps since 1970.

This is the type of strength investors should observe with caution. History shows that when concentration and relative valuations hit these kinds of extremes, like we saw in the late 1960s and the dot-com era, it often precedes a long stretch of underperformance for the biggest names, with stronger relative returns for the rest of the market (in this case, “the other 490”). In fact, during the most concentrated third of historical market conditions (top 10 stocks at 23–39% of index weight), the equal-weighted bottom 490 outperformed the top 10 in 88% of rolling five-year periods.

Again, I don’t mean to fire a warning signal. Big technology companies could continue to deliver, and AI’s impact on the economy and profits could be even bigger than many are anticipating. But history tells us the path is never a straight line, and leadership at this scale will be difficult to sustain over the long term.

For investors, I think it’s a reason to check your portfolio’s balance. In environments like this, trimming back some of the biggest winners, taking profits, and reallocating to areas with better value can reduce risk without sacrificing long-term upside.

Bottom Line for Investors

I’m not ready to declare that optimism is giving way to euphoria in markets today. There are still plenty of skeptics, and I think tariff uncertainty is still meaningful to a healthy segment of investors. But when optimism starts to take hold across the board, especially without a material improvement in underlying economic conditions, history suggests that caution is warranted. Our team is watching these signals closely.

As far as big tech’s outperformance, markets can stay concentrated for a while, and economic data can remain choppy without derailing a bull market. But when leadership narrows, valuations stretch, and the economic picture is cloudy, I’d expect conditions to get a bit choppier. We continue to rebalance portfolios and diversify into attractively valued areas, all while staying disciplined.

¹CFA Institute. April 2, 2025. https://advisor.zacksim.com/e/376582/-decades–mod-djemMoneyBeat-us/5tfmhj/1292261589/h/H6rBn980PI156pgSyq0LCDT8kGec5YoTBEtC0KK9FcA

DISCLOSURE
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss.

Aug 15

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Mitch Zacks – Weekly Market Commentary: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) Keeps Flashing Warning Signals

By BayTrust Financial Weekly Market Commentary

In June, The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell -0.3% month-over-month, marking the sharpest drop since February and adding to over two years of successive declines. Readers can see in the chart below that LEI has been in a near-freefall since early 2022.¹

Historically speaking, these consecutive LEI declines would be a troubling sign for the U.S. economy. The index is designed to be a predictive tool, built on 10 components ranging from unemployment claims to building permits to stock prices. As seen above, the past three recessions have all been preceded by a LEI that tops out and rolls over.

Yet here we are, two years removed from LEI’s peak and subsequent declines, with no recession on the books or in sight.

Does this mean LEI is no longer a reliable indicator for the U.S. economy, meaning we should ignore it altogether when making macroeconomic forecasts? Not necessarily, in my view. There’s some context that matters here.

The first big piece is taking into account pandemic distortions. As readers may recall, lockdowns and massive fiscal stimulus (in the form of direct transfers) pulled forward demand for physical goods, which created an unnatural spike in the manufacturing sector. Among the components of the LEI are average weekly hours in manufacturing, new orders, and building permits, which are all geared toward manufacturing and goods-producing sectors.

The issue here is that the manufacturing hangover (post-pandemic) has been a major drag on LEI, even though the sector accounts for less than 20% of U.S. GDP. The U.S. is a services-based economy, and there is not much services-based economic data that goes into the LEI calculation.

The skew here matters. In recent readings, much of the weakness in the LEI comes from falling new orders in manufacturing, declining average work hours, and a slight uptick in jobless claims. Meanwhile, the U.S. services economy, including consumer spending, healthcare, technology, and financial services, continues to hold up solidly. This helps explain why LEI has been in decline since mid-2022, even as U.S. GDP has continued to grow.

Another factor is the yield curve. LEI includes the interest rate spread between 10-year and fed funds rates, which has been inverted for much of the last two years (see chart below). Historically, an inverted yield curve has been a reliable recession signal, as relatively high borrowing rates can give way to a credit crunch. But banks today are still sitting on excess deposits from the pandemic era, muting the need to borrow at high short-term rates. Lending has slowed, but we’re not seeing a collapse.

I still think the LEI is a useful indicator for investors to track, even though its ability to predict recession has not panned out in this cycle. It’s an index that’s constantly evolving; the Conference Board revamped it in 2012 and removed outdated inputs like the M2 money supply and the University of Michigan sentiment index. Even earlier, in 1996, materials prices and manufacturers’ unfilled orders were replaced with the yield curve, reflecting changes in how we’ve come to understand economic inflection points.

Bottom Line for Investors

The trend in the LEI is worth watching going forward, but I don’t think we’re in a place where ‘it’s just a matter of time’ before the recession arrives. Much of the LEI’s current weakness reflects narrow slices of the economy that are not effectively capturing the full picture. Services remain strong, consumers are still spending, and corporate profits are holding up. These drivers represent the lion’s share of output.

The key for market watchers is to treat LEI like one data point of many that you use to make forecasts and ‘check the pulse’ of the U.S. economy. No one indicator is sacrosanct or all-predicting.

¹Wall Street Journal. July 21, 2025.

²Conference Board. 2025. https://advisor.zacksim.com/e/376582/topics-us-leading-indicators-/5tdn4y/1286248270/h/8i0_CYHlAFEcPbSgvN48QvtwBHi6SRBJWpGhW04JHho

³Fred Economic Data. August 5, 2025. https://advisor.zacksim.com/e/376582/series-T10Y3M-/5tdn52/1286248270/h/8i0_CYHlAFEcPbSgvN48QvtwBHi6SRBJWpGhW04JHho

DISCLOSURE
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss.

Aug 04

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Mitch Zacks – Weekly Market Commentary: Global Economic Resilience Driving Markets Up—So Far

By BayTrust Financial Weekly Market Commentary

How Global Economic Resilience is Driving Markets

At the turn of the year, we knew tariffs were going to be a key factor in the global economic growth story. Just how much of a factor was unclear.

Fast forward to today, and I think it’s fair to say that the uncertainty surrounding trade policy went far higher than many expected, while the global economic fallout was far more muted than many anticipated (at least so far). A high-level takeaway is clear: the global economy has once again shown that it’s capable of absorbing shocks.¹

The facts bear this out. Early estimates indicate that the global economy grew at a 2.4% annual rate in the first half of 2025, roughly matching its long-term trend. The IMF and World Bank have also both upgraded their full-year global growth forecasts in recent months, and we recently saw that world merchandise trade volumes rose 5.3% year-over-year in the first quarter, surprising to the upside. These are not data one would expect to accompany a global ‘trade war.’

Global economic resilience has also been reflected in business surveys. The S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI hit 54.6 in July, which is its fastest expansion rate this year. In the eurozone, PMIs have remained in expansion territory, with Germany’s new manufacturing orders recently rising at the fastest in three years. And PMI data for Japan, India, and Australia point to continued expansion. Remember, these are all countries that have been targeted with higher tariffs.

A major theme underpinning this resilience is how companies and supply chains have adapted. Businesses accelerated purchases to beat tariff deadlines (“front-loading”), rerouted exports through countries with lower tariffs, and shifted production closer to end markets—strategies honed during the pandemic. U.S. imports from Southeast Asia jumped 28% year-over-year in the first four months of 2025, and overall Chinese exports, despite falling to the U.S., rose 6% thanks to growth in Asia, Europe, and Africa.

We’re also seeing fundamental strength in U.S. corporate earnings. As I write, S&P 500 companies have posted 8.3% earnings-per-share (EPS) growth on 4.9% higher revenues in Q2 2025. But the key metric is that 83.3% of reporting companies have beaten EPS estimates, and 80.4% have beaten revenue estimates. These ‘beats percentages’ are tracking notably above the historical averages for this group of reporting companies, as the comparison charts below show.

In my view, this resilience has fed into the sustained equity market rally. The ability of companies to navigate tariffs—whether it’s from passing on costs, shifting suppliers, or absorbing margin pressure—has made earnings season better-than-expected and provided a tailwind for stocks in the process.

As I’ve written many times before, markets do not need perfect conditions to move higher. They just need things to be less bad than feared, which is what I think we’re seeing today. Many investors braced for a negative shock months ago, which set the bar for a positive surprise very low. But as evidenced by global economic fundamentals we’re observing now, the tariff impact so far has been far less damaging than most expected, which has markets responding accordingly.

Bottom Line for Investors

The market has spent much of 2025 pricing in trade disruptions, geopolitical uncertainty, and the potential for slower global growth. But reality looks much different than the worst fears. Businesses are adapting, consumers are spending, and governments around the world have been engaging in fiscal and in some cases, monetary stimulus. In short, the global economy is navigating the tariff upheaval in stride.

This resilience has been welcomed, but to be fair its sustainability is not assured. Much recent strength reflects one-off factors—like inventory buildup and pre-tariff stockpiling—which could unwind in the months ahead. Survey data and central bank commentary (e.g., from the ECB and the Fed) suggest demand could cool, especially in the eurozone, if exports to the U.S. fall sharply. Watching data closely in the coming months will be crucial, in my view.

For now, I think it’s fair to say that the risks tied to the trade war have likely been overestimated. Economic resilience has been the bigger theme, and it also so happens to be one of the most important forces that drives markets over time.

¹Wall Street Journal. July 21, 2025. https://advisor.zacksim.com/e/376582/-b2c1824a-mod-djemMoneyBeat-us/5tcwpt/1280980407/h/855hLOE5hsmyjbsXVf-7n_q0Q7yQg_3gbc0jTrm2E2A

²Zacks.com July 25, 2025. https://advisor.zacksim.com/e/376582/loom-what-can-investors-expect/5tcwpx/1280980407/h/855hLOE5hsmyjbsXVf-7n_q0Q7yQg_3gbc0jTrm2E2A

DISCLOSURE
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss.

Jul 22

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Mitch Zacks – Weekly Market Commentary: How the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) Affects Investors

By BayTrust Financial Weekly Market Commentary

Digging into the One Big Beautiful Bill Act

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) has been signed into law, which makes now a good time to review how the law financially affects individuals, families, and businesses. Depending on where you look, you can find sweeping praise or stern criticism of the law’s provisions. I’ll offer no such viewpoint here.¹

My goal instead is to give readers straightforward, objective commentary on how the bill impacts household and corporate finances, which by extension can provide clues regarding potential investment implications.

I’d like to start with what has not changed. Despite some speculation during the legislative process, the OBBBA doesn’t raise corporate tax rates or alter capital gains tax rates. There is also no “millionaire’s surcharge,” no wealth tax, and no financial transaction tax, proposals that circulated in early drafts but didn’t make it into the final version. For many investors and business owners, the absence of these changes means that planning strategies from recent years remain intact.

Now let’s jump into what the law means for individuals, families, and businesses.

Key Provisions for Individuals and Families:

A major feature of the OBBBA is that it makes the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act individual tax rates permanent. This includes:

Lower marginal tax brackets
The expanded standard deduction was locked in, and will now be adjusted for inflation starting in 2026. In that year, the standard deduction for single filers will rise to $16,550, while married couples filing jointly will be able to deduct $33,100. For 2025, single filers will see a temporary $1,000 increase in the standard deduction while joint filers will receive $2,000.
The repeal of personal exemptions
Higher thresholds for the alternative minimum tax (AMT)
For individuals who own small businesses, OBBBA also made permanent the 20% deduction for qualified business income (QBI) from pass-through entities like S corps and partnerships.

Several new deductions were also added, but many come with income phaseouts or sunset provisions. Here are the key deductions I think will impact most readers:

The state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap rises from $10,000 to $40,000 from 2025 to 2029, but it phases out above $500,000 of modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) and reverts to $10,000 in 2030.
A new $6,000 per-person deduction for seniors (age 65+) begins in 2025 and runs through 2028. It begins to phase out at $75,000 of income for singles and $150,000 for married couples.
A deduction of up to $25,000 for tips and $12,500 for overtime pay is available—but again, both are subject to income phaseouts and expire in 2028.

These new deduction provisions offer targeted relief and are allowed even if the standard deduction is taken, which helps widen their reach. However, they do not reduce adjusted gross income (AGI), meaning they won’t lower exposure to the 3.8% net investment income tax or Medicare IRMAA surcharges.

Key Provisions for Businesses

OBBBA reinstates and makes permanent 100% bonus depreciation for qualified property placed in service after January 19, 2025. It also adds a new category, Qualified Production Property, for U.S.-based manufacturers and refiners. Importantly, both bonus depreciation and the expanded standard deduction will now be adjusted for inflation starting in 2026, offering longer-term planning consistency for businesses.

Other key changes for business owners include:

Increased Section 179 expensing limits (now $2.5 million), which allows businesses to write off the full cost of eligible assets in the year they’re placed in service, rather than depreciating them over time. For business owners making large capital investments—this can deliver meaningful tax savings and improve after-tax cash flow in the near term. In other words, good for earnings.
Retroactive R&D expensing for 2022 and 2023
More lenient business interest deductibility under Section 163(j), which effectively raises the ceiling on deductible interest expense, especially for capital-intensive industries. Companies that invest heavily in equipment, facilities, or R&D often have large depreciation expenses. Excluding those from the interest deduction formula means more of their borrowing costs can be written off, making financing growth more attractive.

Bottom Line for Investors

There’s a lot to unpack here, and I did not broach the issue of deficits and the trajectory of U.S. debt, both of which could impact interest rates over time. That said, many of the new provisions expire before the end of the decade, and future Congresses will almost certainly debate the economic and fiscal impact in future years.

In the meantime, investors should view this through the lens of being substantial fiscal stimulus, which also comes as the Federal Reserve appears poised to ease monetary policy to bring the benchmark fed funds rate back to the neutral level. When you have fiscal stimulus and monetary stimulus in the same year, it’s difficult to make a case against owning equities.

¹Congress. https://advisor.zacksim.com/e/376582/9th-congress-house-bill-1-text/5tb18c/1271604313/h/b5NI_ZnFcoKsqat2VL03uwfStfhhtVEi0vJOs9LloWc

DISCLOSURE
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss.

Jul 16

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Mitch Zacks – July 2025 Market Strategy Report

By BayTrust Financial Market Strategy Report

What to Expect from This Report

The pause in trade war tensions has officially passed. As we enter July, the Trump administration has reignited its global tariff strategy, setting new deadlines for dozens of countries to strike new trade deals. Markets have responded with a mix of resilience and caution, as investors weigh the near-term economic risks against an otherwise stable backdrop in jobs and consumer spending.

Earlier in the month, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed both chambers of Congress, and it makes permanent several Trump-era tax cuts, raises defense spending, and introduces stricter eligibility requirements for social programs. We’ll review some of the key details of the bill in this report, as well as previewing what to expect from Q2 2025 earnings—starting with banks.

The Trade War is Back On.

Here’s Where Everything Stands The market’s summer break from tariff uncertainty is officially over. On July 7, the Trump administration delayed the imposition of steep reciprocal tariffs by three more weeks to August 1, following an earlier 90- day pause. But the next day, President Trump announced sweeping new measures: a 50% tariff on copper and a 200% tariff on pharmaceutical imports. These announcements reignited concerns that a full-blown trade war could soon resume.1

The reciprocal tariff strategy, first floated on April 2, targets more than 80 countries and would replace the existing 10% baseline tariff on most U.S. imports with much higher, country-specific rates—some as high as 125%. These measures were briefly enacted in April before being paused. Trump has framed the August 1 deadline as firm, stating: “No extensions will be granted.”

On July 7, letters were sent to more than a dozen countries warning of looming tariffs unless new trade agreements are finalized. These letters included tariffs ranging from 25% to 40%, with Japan and South Korea among the nations facing new 25% duties, particularly on automobile exports. Another round of letters was sent on July 9, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has indicated 15 to 20 more countries will soon be added.

Later that day (after the market closed), President Trump unveiled a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods starting August 1, the steepest yet. In a personal letter to Brazil’s president, Trump criticized the country’s treatment of former president Jair Bolsonaro and accused Brazil of undermining free elections.

Additional sector-specific tariffs are either already in effect or on the horizon. As of June 4, steel and aluminum imports face 50% tariffs (up from 25%), although the U.K. is exempt. Vehicle imports were hit with 25% duties on April 3, and a similar rate was applied to auto parts starting May 3. Pharmaceutical companies will be given up to 18 months to reshore supply chains before their 200% tariff kicks in. Trump has also hinted at possible tariffs on semiconductors, citing national security concerns under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.

In parallel, we’ve also seen an additional 10% tariffs threatened on countries aligned with the BRICS bloc— Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—arguing that their trading practices disadvantage the U.S. The administration has also suggested that the EU could be next in line to receive tariff letters, particularly in light of European regulatory actions against U.S. tech companies.

Despite the sweeping scope and rhetoric, financial markets have remained relatively composed. Many investors appear to believe the real economic fallout will be muted, at least in the short term. Labor markets, consumer spending, and corporate earnings have all remained resilient despite ongoing trade tensions. Still, we think it’s possible that prolonged tariff uncertainty could pressure growth and reaccelerate inflation in the months ahead. Investors should stay alert: the next phase of the trade war is no longer a hypothetical— it’s arriving now.

Breaking Down Provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act

A massive piece of legislation has been signed into law. The bill, which passed after a tie-breaking vote in the Senate and late-night wrangling in the House, aims to extend Trump-era tax cuts, significantly boost military and immigration enforcement spending, and apply cuts to social safety net programs.2

The bill’s centerpiece is a permanent extension of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, including higher standard deductions and targeted breaks for retirees and tip earners. But to fund those tax cuts, the bill introduces deep changes to Medicaid, including more frequent re-enrollment requirements, stricter work rules, and reduced provider tax rates.

The legislation also expands the child tax credit, raises the deduction cap for state and local taxes (SALT) from $10,000 to $40,000 for five years, and introduces a phased tax break for overtime and tip income. On the revenue side, the bill lifts the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion, while also phasing out clean energy tax credits and imposing new restrictions on companies with foreign ties.

Defense and border spending also receive a major boost, with $150 billion earmarked for military projects and $100 billion for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), doubling migrant detention capacity and expanding enforcement.

Taken together, the bill reflects the administration’s dual focus on tax relief and national security, while ushering in sweeping changes to healthcare and social benefits. Though markets have not yet fully priced in the long-term fiscal implications, the bill’s passage is likely to influence consumer behavior, corporate investment, and political risk premiums starting in the second half of the year.

Q2 Earnings Season Begins: Bank Results in Focus Amid Stabilizing Estimates

The second-quarter earnings season is now underway, with early results from Costco and AutoZone already in and big banks like JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo set to report July 15. Market expectations have come down sharply since the start of Q2, but the pace of estimate cuts has slowed in recent weeks, suggesting sentiment may be bottoming.

S&P 500 earnings for Q2 are projected to rise +5.0% year-over-year on +4.0% higher revenues. That marks a slowdown from Q1’s +12% growth, but a solid showing nonetheless. Three sectors are expected to post double-digit earnings growth: Aerospace (+15.2%), Tech (+12.1%), and Consumer Discretionary (+106.1%). Seven sectors, including Energy (-25.7%), Autos (-31.2%), and Construction (-14.7%), are expected to post declines.

The Finance sector is a key area of focus. While JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo all passed the Fed’s latest stress tests and may increase dividends and buybacks, their Q2 earnings are expected to decline year-over-year. Weak loan growth and tepid investment banking activity continue to weigh on results.

However, the Zacks Finance sector overall is expected to post +8.2% earnings growth on +3.9% revenue, lifted by strength elsewhere in the group.

Expectations for 2025 Q2

The start of Q2 coincided with heightened tariff uncertainty following the punitive April 2nd tariff announcements. While the onset of the announced levies was eventually delayed by three months, the issue has understandably weighed heavily on estimates for the current and upcoming quarters, particularly in the first few weeks following the April 2nd announcement.3

The expectation at present is for Q2 earnings for the S&P 500 index to increase by +5.0% from the same period last year on +4.0% higher revenues. The chart below shows how Q2 earnings growth expectations have evolved since the start of the year.

While it is not unusual for estimates to be adjusted lower, the magnitude and breadth of Q2 estimate cuts are greater than we have seen in the comparable periods of other recent quarters. Since the start of the quarter, estimates have come down for 13 of the 16 Zacks sectors, with the biggest declines for the Transportation, Autos, Energy, Construction, and Basic Materials sectors. The only sectors experiencing favorable revisions in this period are Aerospace, Utilities, and Consumer Discretionary.

Estimates for the two largest earnings contributors to the index – Tech & Finance – have also declined since the quarter began. Tech sector earnings are expected to be up +12.1% in Q2 on +10.9% higher revenues. While these earnings growth expectations are materially below where they stood at the start of April, the revisions trend appears to have notably stabilized lately, as we have been flagging in recent weeks. You can see this in the sector’s revisions trend in the chart below.

This stabilizing turn in the Tech sector’s revisions trend can be seen in expectations for full-year 2025 as well, as the chart below shows.

The two charts above show that estimates for the Tech sector have stabilized and are no longer under the type of downward pressure experienced earlier in the quarter. The Tech sector is much more than just any other sector, as it alone accounts for almost a third of all S&P 500 earnings.

The Earnings Big Picture

The chart below shows expectations for 2025 Q2 in terms of what was achieved in the preceding four periods and what is currently expected for the next three quarters.

The chart below shows the overall earnings picture for the S&P 500 index on an annual basis.

The market’s rebound from the post-tariffs April lows has been very impressive, likely suggesting that market participants don’t see the tariff uncertainty as presenting a significant threat. We find ourselves a bit skeptical of this sanguine view. Whatever the final level of tariffs turns out to be, it will have an impact on the earnings picture.

Bottom Line for Investors

July marks a reacceleration of policy volatility, both on the trade and fiscal front. While the market has largely looked past the latest tariff threats and the partisan wrangling over the budget bill, the underlying economic effects may take months to surface.

Earnings, for now, remain a pillar of support. The pace of estimate cuts has slowed, and certain sectors—most notably Tech and Aerospace—are showing strong growth. But with trade deadlines looming, more trade deficits on the horizon, and core inflation still sticky, it’s important for investors to stay nimble.

Investors should continue to emphasize diversified exposure and keep a close eye on how policy decisions translate into real economic impact. Volatility may stay contained for now, but the second half of 2025 is shaping up to be a critical period for testing the market’s durability.

DISCLAIMER

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. Zacks Investment Management, Inc. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Zacks Investment Research. Zacks Investment Management is an independent Registered Investment Advisory firm and acts as an investment manager for individuals and institutions. Zacks Investment Research is a provider of earnings data and other financial data to institutions and to individuals.

The S&P 500 Index is a well-known, unmanaged index of the prices of 500 large-company common stocks, mainly bluechip stocks, selected by Standard & Poor’s. The S&P 500 Index assumes reinvestment of dividends but does not reflect advisory fees. The volatility of the benchmark may be materially different from the individual performance obtained by a specific investor. An investor cannot invest directly in an index.

Nasdaq Composite Index is the market capitalization-weighted index of over 3,300 common equities listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. The types of securities in the index include American depositary receipts, common stocks, real estate investment trusts (REITs) and tracking stocks, as well as limited partnership interests. The index includes all Nasdaq listed stocks that are not derivatives, preferred shares, funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or debenture securities. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. The volatility of the benchmark may be materially different from the individual performance obtained by a specific investor.

The S&P GSCI is the first major investable commodity index. It is one of the most widely recognized benchmarks that is broad-based and production weighted to represent the global commodity market beta. The index is designed to be investable by including the most liquid commodity futures, and provides diversification with low correlations to other asset classes. The volatility of the benchmark may be materially different from the individual performance obtained by a specific investor.

The Russell 1000 Value Index is a well-known, unmanaged index of the prices of 1000 large-company value common stocks selected by Russell. The Russell 1000 Value Index assumes reinvestment of dividends but does not reflect advisory fees. An investor cannot directly invest in an index. The volatility of the benchmark may be materially different from the individual performance obtained by a specific investor.

The Nikkei Stock Average, the Nikkei 225 is used around the globe as the premier index of Japanese stocks. More than 60 years have passed since the commencement of its calculation, which represents the history of Japanese economy after the World War II. Because of the prominent nature of the index, many financial products linked to the Nikkei 225 have been created are traded worldwide while the index has been sufficiently used as the indicator of the movement of Japanese stock markets. The Nikkei 225 is a price-weighted equity index, which consists of 225 stocks in the 1st section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The volatility of the benchmark may be materially different from the individual performance obtained by a specific investor.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a calculation designed to produce a measure of constant, 30-day expected volatility of the U.S. stock market, derived from real-time, mid-quote prices of S&P 500 Index call and put options. On a global basis, it is one of the most recognized measures of volatility — widely reported by financial media and closely followed by a variety of market participants as a daily market indicator. The volatility of the benchmark may be materially different from the individual performance obtained by a specific investor. An investor cannot invest directly in an index.

Sources

1 Wall Street Journal. July 9, 2025. https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/trump-tariffs-countries-goods-explained-b9878e1a?mod=economy_lead_pos1

2 BBC. 2025

3 Zacks. July 2, 2025. https://www.zacks.com/commentary/2561144/looking-ahead-to-bank-earnings

Jul 14

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Mitch Zacks – Weekly Market Commentary: A Healthy Signal in the Recent Market Rally

By BayTrust Financial Weekly Market Commentary

Stocks’ “v-shaped” bounce off the April lows has been strong, steep, and convincing. But it also has a characteristic I would classify as healthy—it’s been broad.

Market watchers and readers of my column are familiar with the years-long theme of mega-cap Technology stocks driving a lion’s share of the gains in the S&P 500 index. While this general theme remains relevant in the current market environment, we’ve also seen participation widen substantially in the past several weeks to include sectors like Financials, Industrials, and Utilities.

Technical data confirms this trend. The number of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving average has surged to levels not seen since last fall, and advance-decline ratios, which count the number of stocks rising versus those that are falling have notched new highs.¹

Historically, this kind of broadening has been a positive sign. Broader participation means more leadership, more diversification, and I would argue more investor confidence that gains aren’t part of a momentum trade (like enthusiasm for AI or meme stocks).

What’s been encouraging to me is that investors appear to be taking more interest in areas of the market with relatively attractive valuations. Mega-cap tech names often trade well above 30 times forward earnings, which is not the setup in a sector like Financials. What we’re seeing now is that capital is rotating from ‘expensive’ areas of the market to ‘cheaper’ sectors and regions, which I see as a good thing. Readers know what I think about broad diversification.

To be fair, there are also some unhealthy qualities to be found in this market rally. Some pockets of the market, particularly among unprofitable companies and what have been deemed ‘meme stocks,’ have staged very powerful rebounds. Indeed, certain stocks that were hit hardest earlier this year have seen triple-digit percentage gains since April, fueling headlines about a resurgence in speculative trading. These moves may remind some of the GameStop / AMC craze, and it’s clear that a segment of retail investors is once again leaning into risk. But these cases are the exception, not the engine driving the overall market rally. Their sharp recoveries largely reflect how steep their prior declines were, and they don’t signal a broad market shift toward speculation, in my view.

The broader rally has been driven by sector rotation, valuation-based rebalancing, and renewed interest in previously lagging industries. Unlike during past bouts of exuberance, we’re not seeing indiscriminate buying or stretched valuations across the board. Breadth has improved across fundamentally sound names in Financials, Industrials, and other cyclical sectors, suggesting a more balanced and sustainable move higher. If anything, the presence of skepticism about speculative activity may indicate that sentiment remains grounded, not euphoric.

The entire story also has the backdrop of resilient economic data, which strengthens the case that this is a healthy market rally. We continue to see modest inflation, solid job growth, and a consumer who may be a touch pessimistic but continues to spend anyway. In my view, there’s a reasonable case that this market has room to run, with expanding breadth being a support to that argument.

Bottom Line for Investors

For investors, expanding market breadth should be a testament to the value of owning a broadly diversified portfolio. In environments where participation widens, opportunities tend to emerge in corners of the market that have been overlooked or underappreciated. A diversified portfolio doesn’t need to chase the leader, as leadership shifts, you’re already positioned to participate.

Looking ahead, one area worth watching closely is small-cap stocks. While they’ve lagged in the current rally, that underperformance could represent latent potential rather than persistent weakness. If economic conditions remain stable and monetary policy eases further, small-caps—particularly those with strong balance sheets—could catch up in a hurry. Historically, when market breadth improves meaningfully, small- and mid-cap stocks often follow with some of the strongest relative gains.

¹Wall Street Journal. June 28, 2025. https://advisor.zacksim.com/e/376582/link-desktopwebshare-permalink/5t9b1n/1265478991/h/ZSGyjPRySxukaLNY5EFTNCvEYSGwS9kWz-HDQKbQQkI

DISCLOSURE
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss.

Jul 09

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Mitch Zacks – Weekly Market Commentary: How Stocks Managed to Rally Through the Noise in the Second Quarter

By BayTrust Financial Weekly Market Commentary

How Stocks Managed to Rally Through the Noise in the Second Quarter

In the three months ending June 30th, U.S. and global stocks did what they’ve done many times before: they climbed a wall of worry.

If we start this story in April, we know that the market’s uneasiness was triggered in response to the shock of tariffs and accompanying fears of a global trade war/economic slowdown. In short order, the S&P 500 plunged into correction territory and dragged investor sentiment down with it. Headlines were awash with predictions of prolonged economic pain, and many investors became extremely skeptical.

Yet as I write, the S&P 500 index has crossed back into record territory, having posted its best quarterly performance in over a year.

Did all the uncertainty over trade and economic growth dissipate in these past three months, creating all the right conditions needed for a powerful market rally? Absolutely not! If anything, uncertainty and negativity are as high today as they were three months ago.¹

But that’s just the thing—markets don’t need perfect conditions to move higher. In fact, one of the most consistent traits of bull markets is that they advance when expectations are low and the news is simply “less bad” than feared. That’s what we’ve seen again this quarter.

With the backdrop of somewhat extreme investor pessimism on trade and economic growth, consider the catalysts. First, better-than-expected corporate earnings. After slashing full-year profit forecasts in Q1, many companies delivered solid results and issued relatively upbeat guidance. Zacks analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to rise this year, and even more so next year. The growth outlook hasn’t vanished; it’s just been recalibrated. Read: less bad than feared.

Second, the economy continues to show resilience. Inflation has not returned in the way that many feared, the labor market remains stable, and consumers appear to be holding up. Though risks like delayed tariff impacts, a slower global manufacturing cycle, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty remain, those risks haven’t yet translated into fundamental damage. Read: less bad than feared.

You can see the pattern here. For markets, oftentimes the absence of bad news is as powerful as the presence of good news. It doesn’t take perfection to move higher. It only takes outcomes that are modestly better than expected. With delayed reciprocal tariffs and broad-based economic resilience, that’s precisely what we got in Q2.

Stocks climbing the “wall of worry” is a theme I revisit often in my columns because it’s a pattern that recurs so frequently. It makes sense as to why: investing is emotional for many, and with media narratives often grasping at bad news, it does not take much to shift expectations lower than they should be. That opens the door for any type of stabilization, or even just a pause in bad news to spark a relief rally.

In volatile markets, investors tend to wait for clarity before committing or re-committing capital. But that’s often a costly mistake. You’d be hard-pressed to find historical examples of markets waiting for full visibility or green shoots before rallying. The opposite tends to be true. This quarter’s rebound is a case in point: despite lingering questions about tariffs, inflation, and global growth, stocks surged off the April lows. Investors waiting for an all-clear likely missed the recovery.

Bottom Line for Investors

One of stocks’ hallmark characteristics is that they love to climb walls of worry, fueled not by perfect news but by news that’s not as bad as feared. The second quarter of 2025 reminded us of this pattern. Sentiment turned sharply negative in April, only for the market to rebound strongly as fundamentals held steady and policy fears began to ease.

For long-term investors, the takeaway is simple: don’t wait for certainty. Markets move ahead of headlines, not after them, and all they need is a gap between perception and reality.

Markets don’t wait for perfect conditions to move higher—they advance when reality is better than feared. Understanding these signals can help you stay ahead, even in uncertain times.

¹Wall Street Journal. June 30, 2025. https://advisor.zacksim.com/e/376582/2905785-mod-finance-lead-story/5t8fn5/1261463401/h/lvWAPJZe1Mw2dSMaXEIPB_IrVd50nquW6TUvkf8HotA

²Zacks. June 27, 2025. https://advisor.zacksim.com/e/376582/head-to-the-q2-earnings-season/5t8fn8/1261463401/h/lvWAPJZe1Mw2dSMaXEIPB_IrVd50nquW6TUvkf8HotA

DISCLOSURE

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss.

BayTrust Financial

Mitch Zacks – Weekly Market Commentary: Earnings Strength Confirms Resilience, But Leadership Remains Narrow

Mitch Zacks – Weekly Market Commentary: Why a September Rate Cut Likely Won’t Impact Markets Much

Mitch Zacks – Weekly Market Commentary: Is There a Disconnect Forming Between the Equity Market and the Economy?

Mitch Zacks – Weekly Market Commentary: Are Investors Becoming Too Complacent?

Mitch Zacks – Weekly Market Commentary: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) Keeps Flashing Warning Signals

Mitch Zacks – Weekly Market Commentary: Global Economic Resilience Driving Markets Up—So Far

Mitch Zacks – Weekly Market Commentary: How the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) Affects Investors

Mitch Zacks – July 2025 Market Strategy Report

What to Expect from This Report

The Trade War is Back On.

Breaking Down Provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act

Q2 Earnings Season Begins: Bank Results in Focus Amid Stabilizing Estimates

Expectations for 2025 Q2

The Earnings Big Picture

Bottom Line for Investors

Mitch Zacks – Weekly Market Commentary: A Healthy Signal in the Recent Market Rally

Mitch Zacks – Weekly Market Commentary: How Stocks Managed to Rally Through the Noise in the Second Quarter

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